Shaping up to be a good week!

TL;DR:

With substantial snow totals in the beginning of the week and more snow on the way, this week is shaping up to pack quite the punch. Expect more snow as we head into the weekend as another trough impacts the western US. 

Nowcast:

Current mountain conditions are sublime. Mostly clear skies and temperatures in the mid-20s, another great day for skiing. Check the Alta webcam for some more FOMO.

Courtesy: Alta Ski Area

Short term:

From now until Thursday, expect clear skies and warmer temperatures. Winds will be primarily from the southwest and reasonably strong. 

A trough will make its way into Utah Thursday night/Friday morning. This storm has the potential for some more significant snowfall. This storm will approach from the northwest and will be accompanied by a cold front. Take a look at the GFS time-height plot below:

Courtesy: UofU ATMOS

There are a couple of things to note about this plot. Firstly, the post-frontal environment remains relatively moist throughout the day Friday. One thing that this storm lacks is a solid chance for lake effect enhancement. This is primarily due to the flow being primarily westerly, making the lake path too short. The lake effect guidance from the University of Utah suggests a change for Ogden/Bountiful to see potential lake effect (maximum of ~30%). 

Currently, the HRRR is giving us 2.3 inches of water in the mountains through Friday at 12pm MST. The LCC guidance is sitting at roughly a foot of snow through Friday. However, I'm going to forecast that snow totals will be higher, 15-18 inches. Maybe it's just wishful thinking. We'll have an even better idea tomorrow.

Long term:

Things look good from a long-term standpoint as well. We will see another significant snow event on Sunday, and the pattern looks active throughout the first week of December. Currently, the GFS has another trough tracking down the west coast of the US, although it seems like it won't work inland enough to bring us snow. Let's hope that this active pattern keeps up.

Snow Snow Snow!!

TL;DR:

Snow is here! Snow accumulations of 3-8 inches in the mountain ranges with 1-4 in the valley expected. Be aware of driving conditions this morning and plan to leave early if commuting. 

Nowcast:

Waking up this morning to snow in the valley and mountain ranges! A short-wave trough is making its way past the state this morning. The NWS put out a winter weather advisory for the Salt Lake Valley until 2pm and Wasatch Mountain south of I-80 until 7pm. Plan to leave early if commuting. 

Short term:

A short-wave trough is moving into the state this morning until this evening. I expect snow accumulations of 1-4 inches in the valley and 3-8 in the mountain ranges depending on elevation. 

U of U Atmospheric Science

Long term:

As this short-wave trough passes through the state another trough is on its way from the pacific northwest. Higher chances of precipitation are likely as this trough makes its landfall on Friday morning. 

Backcountry comments:

If traveling in the backcountry, please visit Utah Avalanche Center for more information as chances of avalanches increase with snow in the forecast.

Snow is on the way!!

TL;DR:

The progression of a cold front will bring snow and cold temperatures to the region. Mountain snow accumulations ~15 inches.

Nowcast:

Today we are seeing highs in the mountains near 30°F with high level cirrus clouds associated with the progression of an incoming trough and embedded shortwaves that will be moving their way into our region within the next day. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Salt Lake Valley, Wasatch range, and the Uintas. Get your skis & snowboards ready cause snow is on the way!

GOES shortwave IR loop showing the cloud progression ahead of the trough

Short term:

A trough is currently positioned over the Pacific Northwest and will make its way eastward. Multiple shortwaves embedded within the flow that will act to amplify the large scale trough pattern. As the flow progresses, it will continue to deepen, eventually dipping into the state. These shortwaves will act to enhance pre-cold frontal snow in the mountains and the valley.

Snow is expected to begin early Monday morning in the mountains and mid-morning in the valley, ahead of the cold front. Expect periods of heavy snowfall throughout the day in the mountains, as we will see pre and post frontal snowfall. Valley temperatures will stay around the mid 30s tomorrow with sustained wind speeds around 15 mph. Mountain temperatures are expected to be cold, with wind chills around 0°F and winds around 20 mph, potentially gusting to 30 mph. Little snow accumulation is expected in the valley Monday, while the mountains are expected to see around 5 inches.

The cold airmass will move into Northern Utah late Monday, early Tuesday behind the cold frontal passage. Associated with this cold airmass progression, steep lapse rates will increase the potential for orographic enhancement and more snow accumulations. A few more inches of snowfall are expected to accumulate, with continued cold temperatures.

We are expecting to see mountain snowfall totals for this storm around 15 inches, while the valley can expect to see a total of around 1 inch accumulation.

NOAA WPC Short range forecast - surface analysis

Long term:

Cold temperatures are expected continue through the week after the trough continues downstream. Another trough passage is possible this Friday, which could result in another round of snowfall.

Backcountry comments:

With snow in the forecast, avalanche danger is expected to increase. Be sure to check conditions before heading out in the backcountry.

If you will be traveling in the backcountry make sure you have the proper equipment and know before you go. For the whole avalanche forecast and all things avalanche head over to our friends at the Utah Avalanche Center.

-Ashley 

Happy Thanksgiving!

TL;DR: 

    A couple inches of snow freshened up the Wasatch yesterday, now we head into the weekend with sunny skies as we await our next storm on Monday.

Mount Baldy Webcam via Alta.com

Nowcast: 

    Today I am thankful for the deep snowpack we have this early in the season! It's mostly sunny in the mountains today with temperatures not exceeding 30 degrees. Wind is blowing from the North at 10 to 15 mph. High pressuring is building in the region until tomorrow bringing us dry and stable weather.

Short Term: 

    High Pressure has taken a hold on us, giving us some sunny yet cooler days of skiing ahead. Temperatures will rise 5 degrees at all elevations tomorrow and the inversion will continue to build. On Saturday a weak cold front will move through Northern Utah bringing down the temperature with wind  increasing. Likely not enough to blow out the inversion.

GFS 6-hour Averaged Precip Rate via Tropicaltidbits.com

Long Term: 

    The shortwave trough will pass through Sunday afternoon, and any precipitation is expected in the morning if any. Another trough from the the Gulf of Alaska will enter the region Monday morning and will last through the day. It should bring accumulation to the valleys and more to the mountains. Temperatures will be cold, but the mountains could see up to a foot of snow. I'm hoping that low pressure is making its way back into the region to stay.

The backcountry conditions have been stable for a while, but once we get our next storm the danger will rise fast. If you will be traveling in the backcountry make sure you have the proper equipment and know before you go. For the whole avalanche forecast and all things avalanche head over to our friends at the Utah Avalanche Center.

-Ben

Still High and Dry Today, But a Break in The Next Few Days

TL;DR:

Sunny and clear today with a few inches of snow coming late Wednesday and Thursday. More snow next week but only 5-10 inches. 

Nowcast:

It is very hazy down in the valley today, but at elevation, it should be clear. The deep inversion that we are experiencing has flipped the temperatures on their heads. Base temps will be around 20°F with peaks being close to 30°F. It will be totally clear today with little to no clouds so be prepared when being out on the snow.

 

Short term:

We have a small short-wave trough moving through late tomorrow that could bring a few inches to the Wasatch. Temps will drop when the front moves in with highs being around 22°F. Clouds will move in Wednesday afternoon and last through Thursday.  I expect only around 1-4 inches of snow depending on elevation.

U of U Atmospheric Science

Long term:

This weekend will remain cold with highs in the mid to high 20s. There won’t be any more precipitation over the weekend but there might be something on Monday and Tuesday of next week. Unfortunately, the main area of vorticity and moisture will hit primarily in southern Utah. We might still get 5-10 inches, but it's still too far out to make an accurate snowfall estimate.

U of U Atmospheric Science

Backcountry comments:

Avalanche danger remains low with the lack of new snowfall. Surface hoar has been seen today throughout the Wasatch. North faces will experience intense sun today so expect slightly softer snow but watch for obstacles that might be lingering under areas with thin cover.

Still Dry.... with Eyes on the Horizon!

TL;DR:

Same ‘ol, same ‘ol … for now, with a chance of a small dusting on thanksgiving eve and potential for more active weather next week.

 

Nowcast:

 

Hazy down here in the valley but looking like a nice day at elevation. Looks to be sunny with no cloud coverage. Temperatures are low this morning with base temperatures below 20°F, midmountain around 20°F, and a bit warmer on the peaks around 27°F. Don’t forget to pack sunscreen and wear some layers!

 

Hidden Peak Webcam via snowbird.com

                    

 

Short term:

 

As the high-pressure system lingers over the Great Basin area, temps will stay cool (highs in the mid 30s °F in the afternoon). Same sub-freezing evenings/nights so be sure to pack handwarmers with your headlamps for you nighttime warriors. There will be an appearance of cloud coverage rolling in tomorrow and a continuation of changes into next week.

 

 

 

 

Long term:

 

Things looking a little less dry with a chance of a light dusting coming in on Wednesday seen on GFS and GDPS models. This storm is not projected to deliver quite the thanksgiving dessert we want, but save some room because more storm cycles have some potential looking into next week. There could be more active weather by next week but there is still disagreement between models.

GDPS via spotwx

 

 GFS via spotwx

       

Backcountry comments:

 

Loads of surface hoar and faceting have been developed in the snowpack. This yields caution for sluffing of sugary snow, and danger associated with the next significant loading event.

Surface Hoar at Lower Days Fork (Zanetti & Alden)

As always,

 

If you will be traveling in the backcountry make sure you have the proper equipment and know before you go. For the whole avalanche forecast and all things avalanche head over to our friends at the Utah Avalanche Center.

 

 

Sunny D, Sunny Week.

 

TL;DR:

I Spy With My Little Eye.. Clear Skies that are Blue and Dry.

Nowcast:

If you were outside yesterday or took the dog for a morning walk you might have put an extra jacket on to handle the cold front that passed through Salt Lake City. Valley temperatures are in the low teens and it’s cooler in the parking lots at your favorite skin track or lift line. 

Short term:

Expect today to be similar to yesterday. Twitter is a mess from frantic Elon-emails, and that’s more exciting than the current upper air setup. (Unless you’re in Buffalo/New York and getting feet of snow).

For Utah, Salt Lake, and our favorite Cottonwoods: Mostly clear skies for today, calm winds from valleys and parking lots up to the ridges. Could have some winds from the North at the higher chairs and lunch spots.. keep that windbreaker or extra layer in your pack if you need it.

Enjoy the sun while it’s shining, sunglasses and some SPF will help your day. If skies are clear in the parking lot get your dark lenses out.

Roads should be okay with steady temperatures below freezing, expect ice in the usual spots but relatively clear heading up the canyons.

NAM output courtesy www.spotwx.com, low teens for 'boots on' in the parking lot.. near freezing when chairs stop spinning

Long term:

More of the same this weekend. There’s a low pressure system parked in the Alaskan peninsula, as it marches eastward and makes landfall our Wasatch range could see a light refresh of precipitation.

Timing is down the road and amounts are To Be Determined (TBD) if the arctic air mass continues to be our air-source expect cooler temperatures.

Long range models have Wednesday in sight for a light refill. Great time for beacon practice in the meantime.

Water Vapor courtesy: https://a.atmos.washington.edu/
When will the low move east? Bring us the POW

Backcountry comments:

Today’s recycled powder could cause issues if it continues to cool and facet.. get the goods while you can, more important: check the forecast. Bring your gear, learn how it works, and practice.  

If you will be traveling in the backcountry make sure you have the proper equipment and know before you go. For the whole avalanche forecast and all things avalanche head over to our friends at the Utah Avalanche Center.

Same Old, Same Old

TL;DR: High pressure will build into the region over the next couple of days bringing dry and clear conditions with warming temperatures. A shortwave trough will pass to the north of Utah sometime early next Wednesday just missing us with a chance of precipitation. 

Nowcast: An arctic cold front passed this morning which has dropped temperatures and will limit our daytime high today. A high-pressure ridge sits to the west of Utah waiting to move into the region. Wasatch ski resorts are looking at a high temperature in the upper teens today at the base with a slight wind from the NW. Ridgelines at 9000' can expect to see winds blowing 5-15 mph and 10-20 mph at 11000' with gusts above 25 mph. Expect any cloud coverage to clear throughout the day.

(Alta Ski Resort 10:00 am (Mt Baldy) https://www.alta.com/weather)

Short-Term Forecast: A high-pressure ridge will continue moving into the region bringing warming temperatures, clear skies, and dry conditions through the weekend and early next week. At Wasatch resorts expect daytime highs to hit the low 20's and nighttime lows to be in the mid-low teens.

(NWS Hourly Forecast for Alta, Friday - Monday: https://www.weather.gov/) 

Long-Term Forecast: A shortwave trough will pass to the north of Utah early next Wednesday missing us for a chance of precipitation. High pressure looks to build back into the region up after.

(GFS 500mb Geopotential Height Anomaly Tropical Tidbits: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/)

For those of you wondering, it looks like our next chance of notable precipitation could be at the very end of the month but it's too early to make any assumptions.

If you are planning on traveling into the backcountry make sure you head to UAC for snow and avalanche conditions to stay safe! #knowbeforeyougo 

Cold and Dry

TL;DR: We continue to see temperatures that are anomalously cold, under sunny skies.

Nowcast: As of 11:00 a.m. mountain time, temperatures at mountain crest level remain in in the teens, with base temperatures in the 20s and light winds. Skies are clear. Mountains have not reported any new snowfall since last Thursday (Nov. 10).

It's a bluebird day at Park City Mountain Resort for the resort's second day of the season (Source: Park City Mountain Resort)

Short-Term Forecast: A weak cold front will bring a shift in winds from southerly to northerly, and a reinforcing shot of cold air early on Friday. This wave will not bring any precipitation to our region, just cool temperatures and increased clouds at low levels. Notice how in the time height section shown below (where time progresses from right to left), the blue line, which indicates the freezing level, drops quickly on Friday morning and remains very low all day on Friday. This is due to our weak cold front progressing southwards.

(Source: University of Utah Department of Atmospheric Science)

For the mountains, this will mean temperatures just above 0 °F on Friday morning.

Mid-Term Forecast: In the wake of this wave of energy, a ridge will redevelop by Sunday, and it will be centered over our region. The black contours in the plot below indicate the height of the 500 mbar level in the atmosphere. The large spacing between those contours in Utah indicates a strong ridge.

(Source: University of Utah Department of Atmospheric Science)

This will cause warming temperatures at the end of the weekend and the start of next week. Beyond that, there are signs of a pattern shift, but it is beyond the range of forecast confidence.

Fortunately, we have an excellent base for mid-November, and new resorts are opening each week. Enjoy the great early season skiing!

Persistence

TLDR; Clear skies will prevail with temperatures staying 5-10 degrees F below average for this time of year. A weak, moisture-starved shortwave trough will move through the region at the end of the work week with very little precipitation potential.

Nowcast

At the two open resorts in Big Cottonwood Canyon, temperatures are in the low 20s at lower elevations (~8000ft) and mid-teens at upper elevations (~9500-10,000ft). Skies are a deep blue this morning with hardly a cloud in sight over the Central Wasatch. Winds are calm to 10mph at the highest elevations. A dark goggle lens and plenty of sunscreen should definitely be on hand for those heading up to the mountains today. Enjoy the sun! 

Cloud-free skies prevail over northern Utah this morning, as seen from the NASA GOES-EAST satellite. Image courtesy of the College of DuPage.

Short Term

Not much in the way of significant changes to our weather over the next 36 hours as we remain in between a region of high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska and low pressure over the Eastern US. We will see gradual warming tomorrow in the range of 2-4 degrees F before cooler weather arrives Friday morning. A weak shortwave trough (a relatively small region of low pressure, a weak wave pattern that moves around larger scale features) will be moving through the region Friday morning cooling temperatures ~10 degrees F and increasing cloud cover. In the image below, the axis (center) of the trough at 5am MST November 18 is drawn in red.

500mb (~5500m above sea level) Geopotential Heights and Wind Barbs from GFS Model, Valid 5am MST November 18. Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.

The two crucial ingredients to produce precipitation for significant winter precipitation are dynamics and moisture. Simplified, dynamics can just be interpreted as upward motion in the atmosphere. Without significant upward motion, it is difficult to condense water vapor into clouds. This storm lacks both significant dynamics and moisture; Any precipitation with this event will likely amount to little more than a trace and will be confined to the highest elevations.

As some of you may have noticed, even with our notable dearth of precipitation in the last week, temperatures have remained below average. Why could this be? One key to this lasting cold is the origin of our current airmass. Let's take a look.

NOAA Hysplit Ensemble, 72hr Backward Trajectory Valid 5pm MST November 14, 2022. Image courtesy of NOAA Air Resources Laboratory.

The above plot takes the airmass that was located 500m above the surface at Alta and runs the model in reverse for 72 hours to see where it likely came from. The different lines are different possible solutions from different models in the ensemble. As you can see, the majority of the solutions are showing our airmass' origin to be interior Canada, dropping down from the North. Air from interior Canada this time of year is typically much cooler than our usual air masses in Northern Utah during periods of high pressure, as is the case here. 

Long Term

While we will likely remain dry for the next week, there is the potential for precipitation to make its return to Northern Utah in the 8-14 day outlook. The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting an elevated chance of above-average precipitation for our region. While this is by no means a certainty, it does mean the dice are loaded in our favor for the November 23 - 29 period.

Clear Skies, Cold Temps

TL;DR: 

More clear skies and cold temperatures through the end of the week. Around Thanksgiving, we could see more snow; however, it looks like a relatively weak storm. 

Nowcast:

Courtesy: Alta Ski Area

Currently, mountain-top temperatures are sitting around 10 degrees F, with base temperatures around 20 degrees F. Winds are weak and from the NNW. There are scattered clouds around mountain-top height. Looks like a great day to go walk around in the mountains. If doing so, please consult the UAC before heading out.

Short term:

Not too many exciting things to say here. A ridge has built to our west, channeling cold air from the north down into Utah. There is also a short wave (small scale) trough passing through the region; this feature is causing the scattered cloud cover. I expect this pattern to continue through the end of the week. Expect colder-than-average temperatures throughout the end of the week; as we move into the weekend, things should warm up.

Long term:

Here things begin to get marginally more interesting. The models are still pretty far out and not in agreement, but it looks like a larger scale trough will impact the western US mid-next week. When I looked at the GFS last night, it had this system staying almost entirely north of Utah, providing little to no precipitation. However, the GFS changed drastically over the evening, and this morning is showing it impacting Utah in a more significant way, albeit it still doesn't look anything like a monster storm. 

The European model, on the other hand, shows the storm tracking down California. Which one would be better for snow in the Wasatch? The GFS marginally wins from that perspective. All we can do is wait and see where the consensus begins to lie over the next few days.

Same Same, Keep the Stoke High

TL;DR:

In the meantime, more sun and cooler temperatures, and some precipitation may be headed our way early next week. 

Nowcast:

We see more sun and cool temperatures after another beautiful weekend in the mountains. At mountain bases, temperatures are in the mid-teens and dip down to as cold as six degrees at the mountain tops. Winds are calm out of the north and there are some scattered clouds. 

Alta Ski Resort

Short term:

Over the next couple of days, we are going to see much of the same as we sit on the edge of what is known as an omega block. This is when the large-scale flow pattern creates a less progressive area of high pressure. As seen below, you can gather where the name omega block comes from. 

University of Utah Dept. Atmospheric Science

Temperatures will remain cool; winds calm and the skies relatively clear.

Long term:

Despite where we find ourselves there is still some precipitation in the works, It’s looking like sometime early next week we may see a surge of moisture brought inland and some precipitation with it. As it is still far out we can’t say the strength of this system just yet but it’s better than nothing. Keep wearing your socks inside out, putting a spoon under your pillow, and praying to the snow gods. We have had an excellent start to the season so let’s keep the stoke high and hopefully it will translate to some more excellent storms!

As usual, if you plan to travel in the backcountry make sure you have the proper equipment and know before you go. Check in with our friends over at the UAC for all things avalanche and the whole avalanche forecast.

The Calm After The Storm

Storm Totals:

Alta: 32”

Snowbird: 32”

Brighton: 31”

Solitude: 23”

Park City: 32”

Deer Valley: 28”

Snowbasin: 20”

Powder Mountain: 20”

TL;DR:

 Following an excellent storm event, things will calm down until next week. Temperatures will remain cold and the skies clear. We may see an event at the beginning of next week, moisture-dependent.

Nowcast:

As the storm settles and the clouds scuttle out of town we are left with cold temperatures in both the valley and the mountains, in the cottonwoods, the temperatures are hardly touching the teens and is even as low as 0 at the peak of Mt. Baldy. Temperatures will remain cold throughout the day with some scattered clouds. Some trace snow could be seen in areas today but nothing significant. With that said we are moving into a dryer period and clear skies are on the way.

Alta Ski Resort

Short term:

Looking to the next couple of days there might not be another storm on the way but there will be stunning clear weather to welcome the opening of some resorts this weekend. Solitude and Brighton will see cold clear days as their lifts start spinning. While there is a shortwave trough passing the area the dry conditions aloft will prevent any sort of precipitation.

The University of Utah Dept. Atmospheric Science

In the maps above the two shortwave troughs that will move over Utah are displayed as well as the patch of dry air that will reside over Utah in the near future. In the image on the bottom right, it can be seen that as a result of the first shortwave trough digging far enough south the injection of moisture misses us far to the east.

Long term:

As seen in the graphic above there is another shortwave trough that is on the way and could arrive around Tuesday. While models show potential for a little bit of precipitation this will be highly dependent on how far south this trough moves. The further north this trough remains the more potential for moisture to be brought to the area and create more favorable storm conditions.

Here the trough for Tuesday is depicted on top of the integrated vapor transport. As the models show at the moment this trough will be far enough south that it will bring the moisture inland south of Utah. The University of Utah Dept. Atmospheric Science

If you will be traveling in the backcountry have the proper equipment and know before you go. With the addition of so much new snow to the snowpack there are many avalanche problems to be aware of, check in with our friends over at the UAC for the full avalanche report and all other things avalanche.

Yeeeeehawwww, What a Storm!

TL:DR:

We are getting dumped on, and this storm will continue through tonight taking us into a dry period until late next week.

Storm snow totals:

Alta: 25”

Snowbird: 23”

Brighton: 22”

Solitude: 23”

Park City: 18”

Deer Valley: 20”

Snowbasin: 12”

Powder Mountain: 20”

Nowcast:

We are in the thick of it. Alta is reporting totals so far for this storm at 25” with nearly 3” of water. Currently, up in the cottonwoods, the snow is coming down hard, and temperatures are in the low 20s and dipping down into the teens up around the mountain tops. Winds are blowing out of the W, WSW. Snow will continue throughout the day and slow down as we move into the evening yet will pick back up around 10 – 11 to bring another inch or two.

 

Alta Ski Resort

Short term:

Moving into the end of the week the weather is going to calm down, as this storm moves out of the area late tonight the moisture will go with it yet the cold temperatures will remain. Moving toward the weekend a shortwave trough could move in our direction bringing a small potential for some trace precipitation, the greatest limiting factor will be moisture availability.

 

Valid 0000 UTC Sunday 13. These are the two small-scale features that we will see this weekend and early next week, at the moment the moisture is our limiting factor but we will have to wait and see how these develop. U of U Department of Atmospheric Science

Long term:

Looking forward to next week we are due for a moment to recover from this week’s storm. Models are currently showing a couple of small-scale features that may come in our direction, but moisture will continue to be a limiting factor. Temperatures will remain cold in the mountains.

If you are going to be traveling in the backcountry, ensure to have the proper equipment and adhere to any backcountry closures. Find all things avalanche including the forecast and observations from our friends over at the Utah Avalanche Center.

Big November storm coming in hot!

TL;DR:

A large-scale trough will advect substantial amounts of moisture into Utah through Thursday. Expect 20-30 inches of medium to high-density snow in the mountains with the potential for some valley snow. The highest snowfall rates will be seen Wednesday morning/mid-afternoon. 

Nowcast:

Currently, we are starting to see the beginnings of this storm. The figure below shows highest radar reflectivities over the Central Wasatch. Some convection was popping up earlier this morning resulting in valley rain and some intermittent mountain snow. Alta is reporting 5" currently. 

College of DuPage 

I would expect this intermittent convective pattern to continue throughout the day. 

Short term:

Later tonight and into tomorrow morning is when things begin to get interesting. The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model suggests that more intense snowfall rates will begin in the Salt Lake Valley and Central Wasatch early tomorrow morning (~3-4 AM MST). 

If we look at an output of this model called a time heights plot, we can better see the passage of the cold front and the increased precipitation rates. I've highlighted the frontal passage with a red oval in the plot below, . 

U of U Atmospheric Sciences

The real question from a precipitation standpoint is how long this front ends up stalling on the Wasatch. Below is a plot of total precipitation from the 48hr HRRR run. Total values are in inches of water. 

U of U Atmospheric Sciences

The GFS model suggests a 10:1 snow-to-liquid ratio before the frontal passage, followed by a 15:1 snow-to-liquid ratio after the passage of the cold front. This means in the mountains, we could expect 20-30 inches of snow. Down in the valley, I'm forecasting 1-3 inches. 

Long term:

From a long-term standpoint, things are looking pretty meager. There could be a small-scale trough making its way through Utah early next week, but I don't think any precipitation will be associated with it. However, I don't see any signs of a major ridge taking hold which is the best we can hope for at this point.

I'm just thankful we've got a relatively moist storm impacting us this week that will hopefully keep the snowpack relatively insulated. As always (and especially given our forecasted snowfall totals), make sure to check the UAC before venturing into the backcountry.