Train Keeps Rolling

 TL;DR:

Storms continue through Wednesday before a reprieve from the recent unsettled weather. Another big storm is on the horizon for this weekend.

Short Term Forecast

Snow showers are tapering off this morning in the mountains of Northern Utah. Another round of snow will move through the area from Tuesday Night to Wednesday Afternoon. This wave looks to bring 4-8 inches of new snow to the Central Wasatch. The visible satellite loop below shows evidence of orographic, post-frontal showers forming over the N-S barrier of the Wasatch Mountains. Note that the Salt Lake and Utah Valleys are nearly cloud-free while there is a sharp cloud cover gradient over the Western edge of the Wasatch. 

Image courtesy of the College of DuPage.

Long Term Forecast

After this quick wave of precipitation tonight into tomorrow, another weak shortwave trough will bring 2-4 inches of snow to the region Friday. A slow-moving, longwave trough will impact the Western United States beginning Sunday. The plot below shows 500hPa Geopotential heights and absolute vorticity valid 11pm MST Sunday March 5. While this storm looks to come more like a slow trickle, snow totals for the upper Cottonwoods will look to pick up 12-18 inches when all is said and done.

Image courtesy of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Utah.

As some on social media have been discussing, an active period of warm, wet Atmospheric River Activity looks to begin around March 10. As these storms will come from the subtropics under SW flow predominantly, snow levels could be quite high and the snow dense. This is still a ways out but confidence among different ensemble products is increasing with each successive run. Stay tuned for more details on these storms as they get closer. If this forecast validates, the typical winners under SW flow will go big (ie. Sundance, Ben Lomond Peak, Southern Utah, etc.).

NCEP Experimental 2-week Atmospheric River probability forecast. Image courtesy of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, UC San Diego.

Bad day to be a storm

TL;DR:

Snow has started in the mountains. Expect this snow to continue through Wednesday as we get a steady stream of moisture from a storm off the west coast. No extremely heavy precipitation windows, but the overall totals could be substantial. I expect 20-30 in the mountains and 4-6 in the valley. 

Nowcast:

Snow has started falling at the resorts. It's a brisk morning with trailheads/bases sitting in the '20s and ridgelines in the '10s. The winds are relatively weak. 

Short-term: 

Large-scale setup (2/27/23 13:50:21 UTC). Courtesy: College of DuPage

Above is the upper-level water vapor channel on board GOES-West. The storm that will be providing us with more snow can be seen just off the coast of Oregon. The comma cloud stretches over Washington, Oregon, and Northern California. The GFS has this storm slamming into the west coast over Oregon and Northern California, after which it will make its way into Utah. 

Right now, the GFS and HRRR agree that there will be two "waves" of the storm. I don't want to call them fronts because they don't look like very organized fronts, at least to me. The first wave of the storm has just started and should continue through tomorrow morning. Substantial mountain accumulation is likely tonight. The Little Cottonwood GFS Guidance says just over 15 inches by midday tomorrow. The HRRR is suggesting a little less (12 inches). A foot is a safe bet, with more if it really gets going. 

There will be a break on Tuesday, and then the second wave comes in. It's going to start Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. There should also be another 15 inches or so associated with this one. Take a peak at the SREF ensemble below.

Courtesy: UofU ATMOS

The ensembles are relatively tightly packed, around 30 inches or just under for this storm. The outliers are evenly distributed above and below the mean, so we'll have to see how it shapes out. I'd say 25-30 inches is a safe bet. 

It just keeps coming. 

Long-term:

After this storm, the GFS quiets down until later next week, where there is real potential for another big one if it shapes up. The Euro doesn't show a similar setup at the end of the run, but neither option looks too bad. I'm going to focus on skiing the powder that's in front of me. 

Have a good week out there y'all. If you're planning to venture into the backcountry, please check out what our friends at the UAC have to say. 

Canadian on the Forecast Desk.. Another storm incoming?

 

 TL;DR: Sunday/Monday Dusting - Tuesday Refresh 

Nowcast:

Interesting stratiform cloud layer this morning and a light snow front coming from the south via the UofU campus webcam (https://home.chpc.utah.edu/~u0553130/Camera_Display/wbbs.html):

You can see some unstable cumulus development with the front as they 'pop' and appear over the Wasatch front towards the end of the loop: 

Radar Reflectivity via https://www.aviationweather.gov/radar/plot?region=wmc

This action is getting ejected from a low pressure system circulating counter clockwise over California. The infrared image below shows cloud-top-temperature and cloud-top-extent: 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-northamerica-14-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

As such, surface temperatures are mid 30s this morning in the valley with light south-southeasterly winds. Ridgetop winds near Alta/Snowbird are 15 mph and much colder temps near 15°F. 

Surface Temperature and Wind Barbs courtesy https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/mesomap.cgi?state=UT&rawsflag=3

Short term: 

Light snow will likely continue today as that low pressure marches eastward across Utah. Winds could pick up throughout the day and expect visibility to 'be what it be' as you head out the door. 

The infrared loop above shows a trough steering flows into the Canadian/British Columbia interior and that will continue to advance southeasterly towards Utah and the Great City of Salt. 

One model output at 500 mb shows today's California low (bullseye) march eastward before dissipating over the Great Lakes. Westerly (zonal-ish) upper level flows above Utah wiggle a bit showing Southwesterly flows as the larger Pacific trough progresses across CONUS. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=500th&rh=2023022612&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

While the larger trough marches across CONUS expect consistent precipitation starting late Sunday, through Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Daily totals could be around 1-2" of snow with a meaningful deposit in the works for Tuesday morning: 

Single model output for the Wasatch area to kick off the week and wrap up February. Light dustings likely, we'll see how the Wasatch WOW Factor cranks these numbers up. Courtesy https://spotwx.com/ 

Long term:

Temperature and precipitation outlook are 'cool' with 'leaning above' precipitation through the beginning of March. 

Personally, I enjoy the colder temps as the surface snow doesn't goo and clump to my ski's and skins...

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Keep at it and have a good week. 

Backcountry comments:

After the recent loading event there have been some wind events leading to increased transport, cross loading, and wind slab growth. Things are 'touchier' than usual and reliable areas could have been impacted differently from the wind. Stay aware as the problem is further defined by the pros. Keep this surface-instability in mind as new precipitation buries today's evidence. 

If you will be traveling in the backcountry make sure you have the proper equipment and know before you go. For the whole avalanche forecast and all things avalanche head over to our friends at the Utah Avalanche Center here: Utah Avalanche Center

More Snow.

TL;DR:

Today will be cold and windy. A few inches of snow is possible over the next few days. The pattern will stay active for snow throughout the next week.

Nowcast:

It is currently 14 degrees with southerly winds of 15-20 MPH. Throughout the day the winds will pick up in speed. 2 inches of snow fell last night and will add to the snow that fell this week. 

Snowbird Snow Stake

Short term:

There could be some lingering snow from this weeks storm over the next 36 hours. A few more inches at higher elevations is possible. It will contiue to be cold because of high winds in the area.

Utah ATMOS

Long term:

It will continue to be cold throughout next week. There is another storm impacting us early next week. It should start on Monday and continue through Wednesday. It should produce enough snow to have a few fun days next week. 

Utah ATMOS

Backcountry Comments:

If you will be traveling in the backcountry make sure you have the proper equipment and know before you go. For the whole avalanche forecast and all things avalanche head over to our friends at the Utah Avalanche Center.

Skaði Has Blessed us With More Glorious Pow

 TL;DR:

The big one Has finally hit. Between 20-30 inches in the Wasatch. Should tapper out by Thursday morning.

Nowcast: 

The storm is here and it has already brought a heathy amount of snow to our mountains. Alta is reporting 19 inches since the start of the storm and Solitude is reporting a whopping 28 inches. Both canyons can expect around more 10 inches to fall throughout the day. Unfortunately, Little Cottonwood is closed right now for avalanche mitigation work with no word when it will open. Big Cottonwood is still open but road conditions are less then ideal. If you are planning on going up today, be careful driving up, You cand enjoy the pow if you never make it. 

Sugar Loaf Peak, Alta

Short Term:

This storm will mostly move out by Thursday morning, but there will be some lingering snow in the mountains that could bring up to 5-10 more inches over the next few days. Over the weekend the atmosphere will remain moist leading to more overcast skies. It will remain below freezing so the powder should stick around for the weekend. 

Time height graph showing relative humidity at different pressure levels in the atmosphere near Alta.

Long Term:

Next week will continue to be active. It looks like another storm might be coming our way Monday and Tuesday. Its hard right now to forecast snow totals, but I would not be surprised if the mountains saw another foot of snow from this system. Temperatures next week look to be hovering around freezing with more overcast skies and more unsettled weather. 

Batten the Hatches

TL;DR:

To quote the NWS Salt Lake City, "this will be one of the most impactful winter storms of the season." Heavy snow begins today and will persist through Thursday with excellent skiing conditions setting up for the latter half of the work week.

Current Conditions

Pre-Frontal conditions have made their way to the Wasatch with warmer temperatures and light precipitation expected through the early afternoon. Temperatures range from 32F near the base of Park City (7000') to 27F near the base of Alta (8700') to 19F at the top of Mount Baldy (11000'). Winds are generally from the SW at 10mph gusting to 20mph at mid-elevations and 25 mph gusting to 40mph at upper elevations. Alta has picked up 2 inches as of 11am MST.

Light precipitation starting in the Central Wasatch. Image courtesy of Alta Ski Area.

Short Term Forecast

A deepening upper-level trough is digging south through the Western United States associated with a decaying Atmospheric River. A strong cold frontal passage will be moving through Northern Utah Tuesday Afternoon sometime between 2-4pm in Salt Lake County. The heaviest precipitation rates will be following this frontal passage later in the evening. The plot below shows temperatures at the 700mb level (roughly 11,000' elevation) with the red contours. Note the tightly packed contours over NW Utah, indicative of strong cold air advection at this level.

GFS 700mb temperature (red contours), relative humidity (brown/green shading), and wind barbs valid 2300 MST Tuesday, Feb 21. Image courtesy of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Utah.

Precipitation rates will be high after the frontal passage. The plot below from the SREF Ensemble for Alta shows snowfall rates peaking around 8pm MST Tuesday. The horizontal red line near the middle of each purple rectangle is the median 3hr snow for each time period. The peak snowfall rates will likely be near 2 inches per hour at upper elevations for several hours this evening and into the night. Expect road weather delays and potential road closures due to avalanche concerns. 

3-hour snowfall rates and densities from the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF). Image courtesy of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Utah.

Snow Forecast through Thursday Night

Upper Little Cottonwood Canyon (Alta/Snowbird) - 28-36 inches

Upper Big Cottonwood Canyon (Brighton/Solitude) - 24-32 inches

Wasatch Back (Park City/Deer Valley) - 24-32 inches

Park City/Deer Valley Bases - 10-16 inches

Long Term Forecast

Snow will taper off Thursday afternoon. A series of weak systems (think 2-4 inches of snow for Alta) are expected Friday and Sunday before more significant precipitation returns early next week. Unsettled weather will continue through the end of the month and the Climate Prediction Center continues to note the potential for significant precipitation during the first week of March. Stay tuned for more details on these upcoming systems.

SKI the SNOW: WEDNESDAY,THURSDAY

 TL;DR:

SKI the SNOW: WEDNESDAY,THURSDAY =D 

Nowcast:

Current observations courtesy https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?obs=true&wfo=slc showing air temp (top left) and wind gust (bottom right) in mph 

One of many decoder rings to interpret surface observations. This is for a different map-set, similar idea for the 1st chart. Courtesy https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfc2.shtml

Not much to write home about this morning. Temperatures are 'light jacket' weather in the city in the high 30's with light winds from the south. 

Parking lots in our favourite canyons are at or below freezing and ridgelines are in the low 20's showing light west / north westerly winds. 

The University of Utah / Atmospheric Science webcam shows a cloud deck above the city at 6,000 ft and 7,500 ft above ground level, according to the airport's 1454Z METAR: 

UofU's Atmospheric Science "MesoWest" camera looking WEST. Capitol building on the right edge of the screen and nice views across the valley. Courtesy https://home.chpc.utah.edu/~u0553130/Camera_Display/wbbw.html

METAR text:	KSLC 201454Z 00000KT 10SM BKN060 BKN075 04/M04 A3010 RMK AO2 SLP192 VIRGA T00441044 56005
Conditions at:	KSLC (SALT LAKE CITY , UT, US) observed 1454 UTC 20 February 2023
Temperature:	4.4°C (40°F)
Dewpoint:	-4.4°C (24°F) [RH = 53%]
Pressure (altimeter):	30.10 inches Hg (1019.4 mb) [Sea-level pressure: 1019.2 mb]
Winds:	calm
Visibility:	10 or more miles (16+ km)
Ceiling:	6000 feet AGL
Clouds:	broken clouds at 6000 feet AGL broken clouds at 7500 feet AGL
Weather:	no significant weather observed at this time

Salt Lake Airport's decoded METAR providing cloud heights, layers, and VIRGA comment (rain that evaporates before hitting the surface). Courtesy https://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/tafs/?station_ids=KSLC&std_trans=translated&submit_both=Get+TAFs+and+METARs

The remainder of today should be similar to 'now', with cloudy skies and warmer temps as the sun works its magic (city temps should stay below 50F). Light 'southerly-ish' winds remain until our next wind shift and storm passing late Tuesday. 

Short term: 

The excitement has been building for a couple days if you're a regular to our blog. A cold front is expected to push through from the NW late-Tuesday and kick off a multi-feet pow-dump to the mountains. 

Exact timing is late afternoon / Tuesday evening. Is there a coincidence I returned from holidays and the Wasatch is ready to kick it into high gear? Maybe.  

Canadian model (RDPS) has late-Tuesday for SLC/valley wind and precipitation. Note the shift from southerly arrows (lower plot in green area) to northwest. 8" of snow from this single model, single point output. Courtesy https://spotwx.com/products/grib_index.php?model=gem_reg_10km&lat=40.75225&lon=-111.91275&tz=America/Denver

An official WINTER STORM WARNING has been published by the NWS for SLC. Their timing has the storm starting late-afternoon Tuesday with city accumulations of 6 to 12 inches possible. Mountain snow accumulations vary from 1-3 FEET. Dozens and dozens of inches. 

The storm is expected to wrap up by Wednesday night. Depending on intensity and total volume the pow day skiing could be a double header with more terrain open at the ski hills on Thursday. Remember, this is a cold front so temps could drop below 20F during the full event. 

NWS/NOAA Winter Storm Warning: https://www.weather.gov/slc/#

Long term:

Another low pressure system could hit the west coast this weekend. As it marches eastward into Utah there's a strong chance for precipitation to start late next Sunday. 

Canadian (GDPS) long range output for an arbitrary point on the Wasatch range. Top chart shows decreasing temperatures with the Tuesday cold front and a lingering precipitation system that could setup next weekend for a few days of refresh. Courtesy https://spotwx.com/products/grib_index.php?model=gem_glb_15km&lat=40.5641&lon=-111.6267&tz=America/Denver 

Backcountry comments:

Big snow = big loading = big change to the snowpack. Intense loading will increase the avalanche danger and we'll have to see how it bonds with the surface snow at different aspects and elevations. 

If you will be traveling in the backcountry make sure you have the proper equipment and know before you go. For the whole avalanche forecast and all things avalanche head over to our friends at the Utah Avalanche Center here: Utah Avalanche Center

Fresh Pow

TL:DR: A shortwave trough brought fresh powder last night and it will continue to snow until late morning at Wasatch resorts. We will remain in NW flow until Tuesday next week when a promising storm system is expected to drop an encouraging amount of snowfall. 

Nowcast: A fresh layer of snow anywhere from 3-5" was dropped last night and it will continue to snow until late morning. We currently have NW flow at the 500-mb level with moderate wind speeds at ridgelines. Temperatures are currently in the upper teens with daytime highs expected to be in the lower 20s today. 

(NWS CC Snow Report:https://www.weather.gov/slc/snow#tabs-3)

Short-Term Forecast: Shortwave features will bring a chance of snow on Monday which will only be a dusting compared to what is expected on Tuesday-Wednesday. NW flow will dominate until Tuesday morning when a strong trough system will barrel through. Temperatures on Monday will get into the low 30s during the day and low 20s overnight. 

(GFS 6-Hr averaged precip. Tropical Tidbits: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/)

Long-Term Forecast: Tuesday morning a strong trough system will move through the region bringing large snowfall totals and cold temperatures. Currently, models are showing well over 2 feet of snow expected to fall from Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures will drop into the low teens as a cold front passes Tuesday evening. Wednesday night, temperatures will be in the single digits. 

(Brighton SREF Univ Utah: https://weather.utah.edu/)

Snow Forecast Totals (Monday-Wednesday):

Alta/Snowbird: 24-36" 

Brighton/Solitude: 18-28"

Park City/Deer Valley: 16-26"

Snow Incoming

TL;DR: Today will be sunny in southwesterly flow, and temperatures will warm to the upper 20s at the resorts. Tonight, a trough will dig into the region, bringing a light refresh to the mountains and potentially a few powder turns for tomorrow. The main action is mid-week during the coming week, when a SIGNIFICANT storm will impact the Wasatch.

Nowcast: Resorts last reported snow on Tuesday, February 14. Since then, it has been dry and windy, and the winds have done some damage to the skiing and riding conditions. We'll see sunny skies under southwesterly flow today, with high clouds increasing late this afternoon.

Short-Term Forecast: Overnight, an upper-level trough will dig into the region (upper left panel below), enabling modest precipitation rates (upper right panel), and a veering of the winds to the west-northwest with the frontal passage (lower left panel).

Source: University of Utah Department of Atmospheric Science

Liquid amounts have trended upward with this event. The University of Utah GFS-derived forecast for Alta (see below) calls for about 3" of snow. Maybe we can get lucky and score a few powder turns tomorrow.

Source: University of Utah Department of Atmospheric Science

Mid to Long Range Forcast: Mid-week next week is the exciting part of the forecast,  as a decaying atmospheric river from the Pacific Northwest will penetrate the interior western United States, enabling significant snow in the Wasatch. Frontal passage will be at around 12:00 a.m. local time (midnight) on Wednesday, which will correspond with the heaviest snow. Afterward, precipitation will linger into Thursday morning under post-frontal northwesterly flow.  The NAEFS plumes for Alta are calling for anywhere from 2 to 7" of liquid precipitation equivalent from now through Saturday morning next weekend. 

Source: University of Utah Department of Atmospheric Science

Of course, that is a huge model spread, and we should expect forecasts to trend toward one solution as the event gets closer. Regardless, we're looking at a big event for the Wasatch.

Snowfall Forecast: I'll only forecast tonight's snowfall in this post. Expect about 2-5" of snowfall for Wasatch resorts, which will make for a nice refresh before next week's main event.

Just a little longer

 TL;DR:

Happy Friday! Enjoy the sunshine today and get your tan on while you can. This weekend should give us enough time to soak up the sun and prepare for the next storm cycle.

Nowcast:

Beautiful day up at the Bird today. High in the mid 30's with no shortage of sunshine. There will be light south - southwesterly winds. For now it is the calm before the storm.

Hidden Peak Webcam via Snowbird

Short term:

Going into the weekend, we can expect a transition into some more exciting stuff. The RDPS and NAM models are both predicting some precipitation late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

NAM and RDPS models via SpotWx

First wave of precip can bee seen via Utah Weather

Long term:

After this potential stint of precip rolls through this weekend, things are looking exciting. Models are showing 2-3 low pressures rolling in from the northwest likely bringing heavy precipitation by Monday or Tuesday night and continuing through the week. These models are a bit far out but are looking promising for now. Make sure to check out the latest forecast here at Utah Ski Weather!

Backcountry comments:

If you will be traveling in the backcountry make sure you have the proper equipment and know before you go. For the whole avalanche forecast and all things avalanche head over to our friends at the Utah Avalanche Center.

A bright future

TL;DR:

Clear through the end of the week. Another storm with more potential than the ones we've been seeing recently at the start of next week. 

Nowcast:

It's a beautiful sunny day in Northern Utah today! Temperatures have warmed up from yesterday and are sitting around 17 at ridgelines and 24 at the trailheads/base. Winds are light and from the NW. We have a longwave ridge currently sitting over the region, providing nice, sunny weather. 

Satellite view of current conditions. This is the Upper-level Water Vapor channel. You can see a ridge pattern and no clouds over Northern Utah. Courtesy: College of DuPage

Short-term:

There's not too much exciting to talk about from a short-term standpoint. As a ridge passes over the region, we will have cold, dry weather. I expect the air pollution in the Salt Lake Valley to increase throughout the weekend as we experience the large-scale subsidence associated with the ridge. 

Long-term:

This is where things begin to get exciting. This is the first strong storm we've seen in over a month. The GFS generated Little Cottonwood Guidance from the UofU is going off. Currently, it is predicting ~40 inches, with most of that coming Wednesday. This is likely an overprediction as it is so far out, but still, the most promising thing we've seen in a while. 

GFS derived Time-Height. Courtesy UofU ATMOS

Looking at the time-height plot above, we can see the storm is associated with a cold frontal passage around 12Z on Wednesday (6 MST). Temperatures will warm up Tuesday afternoon/evening as the storm begins. The mountains might get some precipitation before the passage Wednesday morning, but I expect the bulk of the accumulation to happen after 6am MST. 

As far as precipitation totals go, it's we're too far out to even begin to start putting numbers down. The NAEFS has a spread of 10-120 inches, so any estimate would be a shot in the dark. I'm confident it will be something, and it should be better than what we've been getting for the past month. 

After Wednesday, the pattern continues to look active, so we could continue to get large storms through the end of February. Stay tuned for more forecasts where we'll dive into specifics. 

Stay Tuned

TL;DR:

While we may be missing some ingredients for snow now, hang tight, and enjoy the sun this weekend, there is snow on the way next week!

Nowcast:

    It is a cold day in the mountains with temperatures nearing zero at mountain bases, dipping to zero at midmountain levels, and even as low as -6 on mountain ridges.  Mild Northeasterly winds can be found at upper elevations. Visibility is low as the mountains are socked in while we experience the latter half of last night's storm. Despite this, snow totals have been negligible. 

Alta's High Rustler camera, Alta

Short term:

    Looking to the end of this week we will experience more of the high pressure that we saw over the past weekend. With the short trough that is currently leaving Utah on the way out a small area of high pressure will enter the area. With a shift in the flow to a more Southerly pattern we should see rising temperatures with warm air being brought to the state. Meanwhile, another short trough is developing off the coast yet models indicate that this will spin off to a closed low that will move south of Utah and may not even make landfall.

U of U Atmospheric Science

Long term:

    Despite the pattern we are experiencing having some progressive attributes, all the right ingredients for the big storms we saw earlier this season have been absent. This will continue through the weekend and into next week. Following a weekend of nice sunny weather, there is some potential for some snow Sunday night. This storm will be highly dependent on moisture availability as we will have many of the ingredients for a storm yet a dry atmosphere.

Sunday evening, the shortwave trough that could bring some snow is highlighted in the upper map. In the lower map, the dry atmosphere we will have is highlighted. U of U Atmospheric Science

Keep your hopes up as there is potential for a major event in the middle of next week. A strong trough in the Northwest could bring substantial moisture and snow totals to Utah. While it's still too early to say with certainty models are showing some areas of the Wasatch could receive up to an inch of precipitation.

If you plan to travel in the backcountry check in with our friends over at the Utah Avalanche Center.

Only Hard for a Little Longer

 

TL;DR: Warm and dry this weekend with a couple inches expected on Monday and a larger system moving though the middle of next week. 

Nowcast:

Today it will be warmer than the past few days. Curranty, Alta is recording around 43F at the base and 30F at the summit. There are broken upper level clouds that is limiting the exposure to the sun. this might keep the snow solid with little softening throughout the day. 

Short Term:

It will be warm and dry for the rest of the weekend with temps in the mountains in the 40s. Monday there might be a small burst of snow, only a dusting to a few inches. More Significant snow is expected later in the week. 

Long Term:

This is where it gets exciting. Wednesday it looks like we are in for an ok dump. A large low pressure system is moving down from the north and we are right in the bullseye. It looks to move through late Tuesday and through Wednesday. Its hard right now to say how much snow will accompany this from because the modules are forecasting low atmospheric moisture. The GFS seems to be predicting most of the precipitation will fall in southern Utah with the north getting only getting a few inches.

ECMWF 500mb height anomalies

GFS Precip predictions

 

Bitter(cold) Sun Symphony

 TL;DR:

Sunny vibes out today so grab your Zinc and PBRs, but don't forget to bundle up.

Nowcast:

Mr. Sunshine is peaking out for another day! Pack your base layers as the high for today is around 34°F with a windchill in the low teens. Make sure you bring some zinc for your nose and enjoy the apres.

Hidden Peak Webcam via Snowbird

Short term:

Not much to report on for the next day or so. Low pressure system over the Great Plains seems to be moving south pretty rapidly, keeping Utah in a small dry spell. This system is pushing the high pressure ridge out, cueing up the next storm system for an easy entrance into our area.

500 mb map with Low Pressure system to the West of Utah via UUATMOS

Long term:

As the next Storm develops off the coast, there is a good potential for a storm early next week. GDPS seeing precip on Tuesday but other models are not yet seeing anything. As always keep an eye out for more forecasts here on Utah Ski Wx.

GDPS model via SpotWx

If you plan to travel in the backcountry know before you go and have the proper equipment. Check-in with our friends over at the Utah Avalanche Center for the full avalanche forecast.