Tuesday, November 15, 2022

Clear Skies, Cold Temps

TL;DR: 

More clear skies and cold temperatures through the end of the week. Around Thanksgiving, we could see more snow; however, it looks like a relatively weak storm. 

Nowcast:

Courtesy: Alta Ski Area

Currently, mountain-top temperatures are sitting around 10 degrees F, with base temperatures around 20 degrees F. Winds are weak and from the NNW. There are scattered clouds around mountain-top height. Looks like a great day to go walk around in the mountains. If doing so, please consult the UAC before heading out.

Short term:

Not too many exciting things to say here. A ridge has built to our west, channeling cold air from the north down into Utah. There is also a short wave (small scale) trough passing through the region; this feature is causing the scattered cloud cover. I expect this pattern to continue through the end of the week. Expect colder-than-average temperatures throughout the end of the week; as we move into the weekend, things should warm up.

Long term:

Here things begin to get marginally more interesting. The models are still pretty far out and not in agreement, but it looks like a larger scale trough will impact the western US mid-next week. When I looked at the GFS last night, it had this system staying almost entirely north of Utah, providing little to no precipitation. However, the GFS changed drastically over the evening, and this morning is showing it impacting Utah in a more significant way, albeit it still doesn't look anything like a monster storm. 

The European model, on the other hand, shows the storm tracking down California. Which one would be better for snow in the Wasatch? The GFS marginally wins from that perspective. All we can do is wait and see where the consensus begins to lie over the next few days.


1 comment:

  1. Upper elevation surface hoar is developing with these current condition. Something to look out for when we get the next storm.

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