TL;DR: Sunday/Monday Dusting - Tuesday Refresh
Nowcast:
Interesting stratiform cloud layer this morning and a light snow front coming from the south via the UofU campus webcam (https://home.chpc.utah.edu/~u0553130/Camera_Display/wbbs.html):
You can see some unstable cumulus development with the front as they 'pop' and appear over the Wasatch front towards the end of the loop:
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| Radar Reflectivity via https://www.aviationweather.gov/radar/plot?region=wmc |
As such, surface temperatures are mid 30s this morning in the valley with light south-southeasterly winds. Ridgetop winds near Alta/Snowbird are 15 mph and much colder temps near 15°F.
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| Surface Temperature and Wind Barbs courtesy https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/mesomap.cgi?state=UT&rawsflag=3 |
Short term:
Light snow will likely continue today as that low pressure marches eastward across Utah. Winds could pick up throughout the day and expect visibility to 'be what it be' as you head out the door.
The infrared loop above shows a trough steering flows into the Canadian/British Columbia interior and that will continue to advance southeasterly towards Utah and the Great City of Salt.
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| One model output at 500 mb shows today's California low (bullseye) march eastward before dissipating over the Great Lakes. Westerly (zonal-ish) upper level flows above Utah wiggle a bit showing Southwesterly flows as the larger Pacific trough progresses across CONUS. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=500th&rh=2023022612&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= |
While the larger trough marches across CONUS expect consistent precipitation starting late Sunday, through Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Daily totals could be around 1-2" of snow with a meaningful deposit in the works for Tuesday morning:
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| Single model output for the Wasatch area to kick off the week and wrap up February. Light dustings likely, we'll see how the Wasatch WOW Factor cranks these numbers up. Courtesy https://spotwx.com/ |
Long term:
Temperature and precipitation outlook are 'cool' with 'leaning above' precipitation through the beginning of March.
Personally, I enjoy the colder temps as the surface snow doesn't goo and clump to my ski's and skins...
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| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ |
Keep at it and have a good week.
Backcountry comments:
After the recent loading event there have been some wind events leading to increased transport, cross loading, and wind slab growth. Things are 'touchier' than usual and reliable areas could have been impacted differently from the wind. Stay aware as the problem is further defined by the pros. Keep this surface-instability in mind as new precipitation buries today's evidence.
If you will be traveling in the backcountry make sure you have the proper equipment and know before you go. For the whole avalanche forecast and all things avalanche head over to our friends at the Utah Avalanche Center here: Utah Avalanche Center
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