TL;DR:
While we may be missing some ingredients for snow now, hang tight, and enjoy the sun this weekend, there is snow on the way next week!
Nowcast:
It is a cold day in the mountains with temperatures nearing zero at mountain bases, dipping to zero at midmountain levels, and even as low as -6 on mountain ridges. Mild Northeasterly winds can be found at upper elevations. Visibility is low as the mountains are socked in while we experience the latter half of last night's storm. Despite this, snow totals have been negligible.
Alta's High Rustler camera, Alta |
Short term:
Looking to the end of this week we will experience more of the high pressure that we saw over the past weekend. With the short trough that is currently leaving Utah on the way out a small area of high pressure will enter the area. With a shift in the flow to a more Southerly pattern we should see rising temperatures with warm air being brought to the state. Meanwhile, another short trough is developing off the coast yet models indicate that this will spin off to a closed low that will move south of Utah and may not even make landfall.
U of U Atmospheric Science |
Long term:
Despite the pattern we are experiencing having some progressive attributes, all the right ingredients for the big storms we saw earlier this season have been absent. This will continue through the weekend and into next week. Following a weekend of nice sunny weather, there is some potential for some snow Sunday night. This storm will be highly dependent on moisture availability as we will have many of the ingredients for a storm yet a dry atmosphere.
Sunday evening, the shortwave trough that could bring some snow is highlighted in the upper map. In the lower map, the dry atmosphere we will have is highlighted. U of U Atmospheric Science |
Keep your hopes up as there is potential for a major event in the middle of next week. A strong trough in the Northwest could bring substantial moisture and snow totals to Utah. While it's still too early to say with certainty models are showing some areas of the Wasatch could receive up to an inch of precipitation.
If you plan to travel in the backcountry check in with our friends over at the Utah Avalanche Center.
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