SKI the SNOW: WEDNESDAY,THURSDAY

 TL;DR:

SKI the SNOW: WEDNESDAY,THURSDAY =D 

Nowcast:

Current observations courtesy https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?obs=true&wfo=slc showing air temp (top left) and wind gust (bottom right) in mph 

One of many decoder rings to interpret surface observations. This is for a different map-set, similar idea for the 1st chart. Courtesy https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfc2.shtml

Not much to write home about this morning. Temperatures are 'light jacket' weather in the city in the high 30's with light winds from the south. 

Parking lots in our favourite canyons are at or below freezing and ridgelines are in the low 20's showing light west / north westerly winds. 

The University of Utah / Atmospheric Science webcam shows a cloud deck above the city at 6,000 ft and 7,500 ft above ground level, according to the airport's 1454Z METAR: 

UofU's Atmospheric Science "MesoWest" camera looking WEST. Capitol building on the right edge of the screen and nice views across the valley. Courtesy https://home.chpc.utah.edu/~u0553130/Camera_Display/wbbw.html

METAR text:	KSLC 201454Z 00000KT 10SM BKN060 BKN075 04/M04 A3010 RMK AO2 SLP192 VIRGA T00441044 56005
Conditions at:	KSLC (SALT LAKE CITY , UT, US) observed 1454 UTC 20 February 2023
Temperature:	4.4°C (40°F)
Dewpoint:	-4.4°C (24°F) [RH = 53%]
Pressure (altimeter):	30.10 inches Hg (1019.4 mb) [Sea-level pressure: 1019.2 mb]
Winds:	calm
Visibility:	10 or more miles (16+ km)
Ceiling:	6000 feet AGL
Clouds:	broken clouds at 6000 feet AGL broken clouds at 7500 feet AGL
Weather:	no significant weather observed at this time

Salt Lake Airport's decoded METAR providing cloud heights, layers, and VIRGA comment (rain that evaporates before hitting the surface). Courtesy https://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/tafs/?station_ids=KSLC&std_trans=translated&submit_both=Get+TAFs+and+METARs

The remainder of today should be similar to 'now', with cloudy skies and warmer temps as the sun works its magic (city temps should stay below 50F). Light 'southerly-ish' winds remain until our next wind shift and storm passing late Tuesday. 

Short term: 

The excitement has been building for a couple days if you're a regular to our blog. A cold front is expected to push through from the NW late-Tuesday and kick off a multi-feet pow-dump to the mountains. 

Exact timing is late afternoon / Tuesday evening. Is there a coincidence I returned from holidays and the Wasatch is ready to kick it into high gear? Maybe.  

Canadian model (RDPS) has late-Tuesday for SLC/valley wind and precipitation. Note the shift from southerly arrows (lower plot in green area) to northwest. 8" of snow from this single model, single point output. Courtesy https://spotwx.com/products/grib_index.php?model=gem_reg_10km&lat=40.75225&lon=-111.91275&tz=America/Denver

An official WINTER STORM WARNING has been published by the NWS for SLC. Their timing has the storm starting late-afternoon Tuesday with city accumulations of 6 to 12 inches possible. Mountain snow accumulations vary from 1-3 FEET. Dozens and dozens of inches. 

The storm is expected to wrap up by Wednesday night. Depending on intensity and total volume the pow day skiing could be a double header with more terrain open at the ski hills on Thursday. Remember, this is a cold front so temps could drop below 20F during the full event. 

NWS/NOAA Winter Storm Warning: https://www.weather.gov/slc/#

Long term:

Another low pressure system could hit the west coast this weekend. As it marches eastward into Utah there's a strong chance for precipitation to start late next Sunday. 

Canadian (GDPS) long range output for an arbitrary point on the Wasatch range. Top chart shows decreasing temperatures with the Tuesday cold front and a lingering precipitation system that could setup next weekend for a few days of refresh. Courtesy https://spotwx.com/products/grib_index.php?model=gem_glb_15km&lat=40.5641&lon=-111.6267&tz=America/Denver 

Backcountry comments:

Big snow = big loading = big change to the snowpack. Intense loading will increase the avalanche danger and we'll have to see how it bonds with the surface snow at different aspects and elevations. 

If you will be traveling in the backcountry make sure you have the proper equipment and know before you go. For the whole avalanche forecast and all things avalanche head over to our friends at the Utah Avalanche Center here: Utah Avalanche Center