Train Keeps Rolling

 TL;DR:

Storms continue through Wednesday before a reprieve from the recent unsettled weather. Another big storm is on the horizon for this weekend.

Short Term Forecast

Snow showers are tapering off this morning in the mountains of Northern Utah. Another round of snow will move through the area from Tuesday Night to Wednesday Afternoon. This wave looks to bring 4-8 inches of new snow to the Central Wasatch. The visible satellite loop below shows evidence of orographic, post-frontal showers forming over the N-S barrier of the Wasatch Mountains. Note that the Salt Lake and Utah Valleys are nearly cloud-free while there is a sharp cloud cover gradient over the Western edge of the Wasatch. 

Image courtesy of the College of DuPage.

Long Term Forecast

After this quick wave of precipitation tonight into tomorrow, another weak shortwave trough will bring 2-4 inches of snow to the region Friday. A slow-moving, longwave trough will impact the Western United States beginning Sunday. The plot below shows 500hPa Geopotential heights and absolute vorticity valid 11pm MST Sunday March 5. While this storm looks to come more like a slow trickle, snow totals for the upper Cottonwoods will look to pick up 12-18 inches when all is said and done.

Image courtesy of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Utah.

As some on social media have been discussing, an active period of warm, wet Atmospheric River Activity looks to begin around March 10. As these storms will come from the subtropics under SW flow predominantly, snow levels could be quite high and the snow dense. This is still a ways out but confidence among different ensemble products is increasing with each successive run. Stay tuned for more details on these storms as they get closer. If this forecast validates, the typical winners under SW flow will go big (ie. Sundance, Ben Lomond Peak, Southern Utah, etc.).

NCEP Experimental 2-week Atmospheric River probability forecast. Image courtesy of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, UC San Diego.