Atmospheric river incoming!

TL;DR:

A messy atmospheric river will bring wind, warm temps, and plenty of water to Utah this weekend. More chances for snow in the long-term.

Nowcast:

We're seeing a bit of a temperature inversion this morning with summit and valley temps between 25-30°F and mid-elevation temps closer to 20°F. Also, the sun and clouds are having a spirited spar on who gets to control the sky; here's what that looks like from Brighton: 

Brighton webcam, courtesy of OpenSnow

For today, expect fairly mild mountain temperatures climbing into the low 30s °F as well as increasing clouds and wind ahead of our next round of snow this weekend. Read on for the details on that...

Short-term:

The weather pattern responsible for the snow this weekend is an atmospheric river pulling warm, moist air from the Pacific and blasting it at the West; these storms are often called "warm, windy, and wet" and this one is no different - not necessarily ideal for skiing, but excellent for our somewhat lacking snowpack.

So how much snow/moisture are we looking at? Models are generally showing about 2" of water for the Central Wasatch...

GFS total accumulated precipitation, courtesy of Tropical Tidbits

...which they are translating to a general 10-20" of snow by Sunday evening:

Utah Snow Ensemble plumes for Canyons-Daybreak, courtesy of the U's Department of Atmospheric Sciences

It's worth noting that the only time I see 10,000ft temps even approaching -5°C (~23°F) for the next five days is tomorrow morning, meaning summits will be flirting with freezing temps for most of this storm. As a result, the snow that falls will be dense and some lower-elevation areas will probably see some rain.

Long story short, it's going to be a messy storm, but we need the moisture so we can't complain!

Long-term:

The good news is that it doesn't seem like we'll go totally dry after this weekend; as you may have noticed in the image above, follow-up snow is possible around midweek next week. We'll keep you updated on that - hopefully we can get a good, cold, midweek classic Utah storm to make up for all the ones we've missed this season...

Thanks for reading!

The storm this weekend will ramp up avalanche danger across Utah mountains, so if you will be traveling in the backcountry, make sure you have the proper gear and training and know before you go. For the avalanche forecast and other avy-related resources, visit utahavalanchecenter.org.

Where did the front land?

TL;DR:

Snow showers today thanks to a front; fairly chilly and likely dry until next weekend.

Nowcast:

This weekend's snowfall is being determined by a cold front stalling over Utah; where it parked itself would determine who got the best snowfall. Well, as of 6:30am, the front is stalled here:

Current radar, courtesy of OpenSnow

It's sort of falling apart on radar and the best part of what remains isn't targeting any ski areas, but the front was more robust earlier this morning and delivered some snow; from checking snow stakes and webcams, I'm seeing the following totals as of 6:30am:

- Park City/Deer Valley: 1-2"

- Solitude/Brighton: ~2"

- Snowbird/Alta: 2-3"

- Sundance: 1"

- Snowbasin/PowMow: 0-1"

The front is projected to remain in a similar location for at least a couple more hours, so we could add a couple of inches onto these totals.

Short-term:

High temperatures should start the week in the high 20s °F and gradually warm from there. It'll be a very dry week (again) but read on, because that may change...

Long-term:

Model guidance is suggesting our next storm for next weekend, continuing the trend of Saturday/Sunday snow days. Early indications look promising, though - check out the Utah snow ensemble plumes for Alta:

Utah snow ensemble plumes for Alta, courtesy of the U's Department of Atmospheric Sciences

You can see that towards the end of this period (beginning of February) the lines go up - indicating snowfall - but they also spread out a lot, indicating considerable uncertainty. This isn't surprising of course since we're about a week out - we'll keep an eye on it...

If you'll be traveling in the backcountry, make sure you have the proper training and equipment and know before you go. For the avalanche forecast and other avy-related resources, go to utahavalanchecenter.org.

Cold and mostly dry week ahead

TL;DR:

It's cold in the mountains this morning and it will continue to get colder through tomorrow, after which we will likely moderate a bit. No significant snow is expected until possibly next weekend.

Nowcast:

This morning's weather can best be described in one word: *cold*. Almost every weather station in the Central Wasatch is showing single-digit (°F) temperatures, and combined with the wind, many feel-like temps are subzero. Many locations are also just now seeing their first hints of sun after lingering snow showers and clouds kept it hidden; here's what that looks like up at Solitude:

Solitude base webcam, courtesy of OpenSnow

For today, expect mountain temperatures to remain in the single digits under mostly cloudy skies; a bit of snow is also possible. It's going to be a frigid one, so dress warm!

Short-term:

Temperatures will continue to decrease ahead of a particularly potent shot of cold air tomorrow, which will drop mountain temperatures below 0 °F (with feel-like temps even colder than that); after that, temperatures should moderate a bit and return to their seasonal normals, although some models are hinting at another shot of cold air on Wednesday morning... we'll keep an eye on it.

Otherwise, there won't be too much happening this week - big storms (or, for that matter, much snow at all) are continuing to be elusive for many areas.

Long-term:

Models are hinting at a storm next weekend, but agreement is naturally very poor at the moment so I'm not counting on anything yet... 

If you will be traveling in the backcountry, make sure you have the proper training and equipment and know before you go. For the avalanche forecast and other avy-related resources, visit utahavalanchecenter.org.

Cold snap alert!

 TL;DR:

The next five days feature some light snow and some very cold temperatures. Next week doesn't look very snowy, but it does look even colder...

Nowcast:

We're seeing a temperature inversion this morning with temps in the teens and 20s °F in valley and canyon bottoms and low 30s °F at the summits. It also looks perfectly clear up in the mountains; here's what it looked like up at Brighton just a little bit ago:

Brighton webcam, courtesy of OpenSnow

For today, expect mountain highs in the low 30s °F under clear skies.

Short-term:

Tomorrow evening, we are going to get clipped by a storm sliding through just to the east, meaning we won't get the best moisture or energy, but we won't get nothing either. Models are indicating no more than 3-5" of snow by Sunday morning.

Of note with this storm are the cold temperatures it brings; check out the 700mb (about 10,000') temps on Saturday evening:

European model 700mb Temps, courtesy of Tropical Tidbits

The light purple shading over Northern Utah indicates temps around -18°C, which is just below 0°, and models are showing another even deeper plunge into the deep freeze around MLK Day. Brace yourselves...

Long-term:

Next week isn't looking particularly snowy - just cold, as I mentioned above - so keep doing your snow dances :)

Backcountry comments:

If you will be traveling in the backcountry, make sure you have the proper training and equipment and know before you go. For the avalanche forecast and other avy-related resources, visit utahavalanchecenter.org.

Mostly quiet week ahead

TL;DR:

There's a chance of some very light snow tonight along with the chance of more snow this weekend. Temps gradually warm as the week goes on.

Nowcast:

It's a cold, clear morning in the Wasatch; here's the view from near the top of Park City's Crescent chair:

Courtesy of OpenSnow

Don't let that bright shining sun fool you - the valley is in the mid 20s °F and Snowbird's Hidden Peak is showing 8°F with a cool -12°F windchill (up from -21°F just an hour ago but still cold):

Hidden Peak weather, courtesy of the National Weather Service

Expect more of the same for the rest of the day - temps won't climb much above 20°F around mid-elevations and will struggle to break 10°F up at the highest summits; also, expect increasing cloud cover and wind as the day goes on.

Short-term:

A very weak piece of energy crosses northern Utah tonight; I can't rule out a few snowflakes, but it shouldn't be more than an inch or so at most. You can see the slightest increase in accumulated snow on the snow ensemble plumes for Alta:

Utah snow ensemble plumes for Alta, courtesy of the U's Department of Atmospheric Sciences

You can also see a bigger jump after about Friday morning; there's little model agreement on this snow, but you can be sure that we will be keeping an eye on it here at Utah Ski Weather!

Outside of our limited precip chances this week, we'll see mostly clear skies and gradually warming temps - here's a GIF with forecasted high temperatures through Friday:

Euro model 2m high temperatures, courtesy of Tropical Tidbits

You can see that we climb from 26°F to 41°F from today to Friday - good news for those of us who aren't super stoked on frigid temps...

Long-term:

Utah, along with nearly all of the west coast south of the Canadian border, is expected to be in a drier-than-normal pattern for the next little while. Here's what that looks like in a graphic (green means wetter than normal, yellow means drier than normal):

GEFS accumulated precipitation anomaly, courtesy of Tropical Tidbits

Does this mean we won't get any snow? Not necessarily, but it doesn't favor the stormy pattern we winter enthusiasts love either. We'll just have to keep watching and waiting...

Backcountry comments:

If you will be traveling in the backcountry, make sure you have the proper training and equipment and know before you go. For the avalanche forecast and other avy-related resources, visit utahavalanchecenter.org.

Champaign Snow Flows in 25'

 TL;DR:

    Cold temps and snow on the way. 8-13" Saturday with some potential for some lake enhancement! High and dry following this weekend

Nowcast:

    On this fine Friday morning clear blue skies lie above as the sun crests over the Wasatch back. Cool temperatures in the teens sit at mountain bases and up at crest levels. N, NW winds around 10mph blow at mountain tops with gusts poking into the mid 20's. 

Alta Ski Lifts

Short-term:

    The clear skies we see this morning are brought to us by the small ridge that resides over the Southwestern United States. Over the Pacific NW a small positively tilted trough is forming that will dig Southeasterly throughout the day. As the trough moves inland we will see some thin cloud cover in the late afternoon. Additionally, as the trough's associated cold front approaches temperatures will begin to drop. 

U of U Atmospheric Science

    Around 11:00 pm tonight, as the front edge of the trough dips into Northern Utah, the associated cold front arrives. Depicted in the bottom panel of the graphic below, tightly packed dashed lines(negative temperatures, C) move through Utah. We see the dry air associated with the ridge today move out and moister air move in (blue shading representing relative humidity).

U of U Atmospheric Science

    Some prefrontal snow may start around 8:00 pm this evening and will gradually pick up throughout the night. In the early hours of Saturday morning (2:00-3:00) snow will start to fall at higher rates. Steady snow can be expected throughout the day Saturday accompanied by rather low temps in the single digits around mountain crests and only in the teens at mountain bases. With such cold temps, expect high snow-liquid ratios beginning around 10:1 and potentially even reaching up to 15 or 20:1! That is some fine Champaign snow... sorry steamboat, you're not the only place with it; you can't own snow.

    There is some relative agreement among models regarding snow totals. Totals of 8-13" to be expected. That said, throughout the storm, strong NW winds will be blowing the predominant flow across the lake at a perfect angle to increase fetch, bringing strong potential for a repeat of last weekend's lake effect! 

Long-term:

    Around midnight, snow will taper off with some slight chance of post-frontal flurries on Sunday. Accumulations are not likely to break more than a couple of inches. As we move on from this snow storm we will be high and dry for the foreseeable future with a ridge sitting over us for the next 10 days or so. 

Avalanche Comments:

    With the recent storms and more on the way this weekend avalanche activity is to be expected. With a rather widespread PWL on the Northern half of the compass and sporadic winds out of the W and E recently, the mountains will be moving. If you plan to travel in the backcountry, have the proper equipment and knowledge! For all things avalanche check in with our friends over at the Utah Avalanche Center. 

Snow this weekend

 TL;DR:

Snow starts tomorrow night with the passage of a cold front; the heaviest snow falls between then and Saturday morning with snow showers potentially continuing through Sunday night. We then dry out.

Nowcast:

It's a cold and somewhat foggy morning in the mountains; here are some views from Park City (left) and Solitude (right) webcams:

Both images courtesy of OpenSnow

Temps are in the single digits above about 9500'; they'll warm only up to about 15°F at the highest elevations, but fortunately winds should be well-behaved (mostly light) and we should see a lot of blue sky once the fog evaporates, potentially making the cold a bit more bearable...

Short-term:

We'll see our next chance for snow tomorrow evening as a cold front crashes through northern Utah. It's not a particularly strong or moisture-laden system, but it does bring some chilly temps (~10°F at 10,000' by 11am Saturday) so we could squeeze out a decent amount of snow. Most models are currently showing 4-8" for most mountains by 11pm Saturday, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if the good old favored locations like the Cottonwoods get a little bit more. It also looks like we might keep some snow showers going behind the cold front through Sunday night which would add a couple of inches to these predicted totals.

Long-term:

High pressure returns with next workweek and it looks to remain for at least the next ten days, resulting in mostly calm/non-snowy conditions; we should see occasional shots of cold air though. Here's that statement represented in a GIF:

Mean sea level pressure, courtesy of Tropical Tidbits

You can see the high pressure along the West Coast and into the interior West, blocking the storm track save for the couple occasional weak systems sneaking in.

Backcountry comments:

If you will be traveling in the backcountry, make sure you have the proper training and equipment and know before you go. For the avalanche forecast and other avy-related resources, check out utahavalanchecenter.org.

Minimal chances for snow

TL;DR:

We are currently experiencing sunny skies in the central Wasatch. A weak, dry system will pass tonight, dropping temperatures. Look for a moderate snowstorm this Saturday.

Nowcast:

A ridge of high pressure is in control over the west coast, with much of the storm energy to our north and east. This is leading to mostly sunny skies. 

Source: Alta Ski Area

There is a slight temperature inversion from the surface to 825 mbar and just below 700 mbar, per today's 12z sounding at SLC:

Source: NWS Storm Prediction Center

Short term:

Expect strong northerly winds this evening as a cold front passes through, dropping temperatures to fridgid levels below -10 °C at crest level. Unfortunately, this system is not associated with any precipitation, with the only real precipitation chances further to our east. Notice the tight packing of red 700-mbar temperature contours in the bottom left panel of the GFS forecast for 8 p.m. MT this evening shown below, indicative of the cold front. Unfortunately, any precipitation will be confined to our north and east (top right panel).

Source: University of Utah Department of Atmospheric Science

Long Term:

Early Saturday morning, a short-wave trough will dig eastward from the Pacific Northwest, bringing precipitation to the mountains of northern Utah. There is fair model agreement amongst ensemble members in the Utah Snow Ensemble that the mountains of the central Wasatch can expect between 0.4 and 0.7 inches of water with this cold, northwest flow system. With relatively high snow-to-liquid ratios, this can translate to 6 to 12 inches of snow. Not a huge storm, but a good refresh for most mountains.

Source: Utah Department of Atmospheric Science

Beyond Saturday's storm, high pressure takes control for the foreseeable future, keeping storms to our northwest.

Backcountry Comments:

If you will be traveling in the backcountry make sure you have the proper training and equipment and know before you go. For the avalanche forecast and other avy-related resources, visit utahavalanchecenter.org.

Back to School

 TL;DR:

Calm weather until Friday night, when snow is expected to hit through the weekend. Downslope wind advisory, so winds can get up to 20-30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

Nowcast:

From 6am today (Tuesday, January 7th) to 6am tomorrow, there is a wind advisory from the National Weather Service for the northeast Salt Lake City valley. Northeast winds (so winds blowing from the northeast) are expected to be around 20-30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. These winds can blow around unsecured objects and could cause blowing snow that can impact visibility.

Besides the wind advisory, the weather should be pretty clear.

Short term:

Nothing much should be happening over the next 36 hours, with pretty clear skies with no precipitation. The only main concern is wind.

Long term:

https://weather.utah.edu/

Weather will remain calm over the week until Friday afternoon/evening, when a trough is expected to come through the region bringing snow over the weekend. Until we get closer, it's hard to predict how much snowfall will occur from this system.

Backcountry comments:

If you will be traveling in the backcountry make sure you have the proper training and equipment and know before you go. For the avalanche forecast and other avy-related resources, visit utahavalanchecenter.org.

Powder to Kick of 25'

TL;DR: 

    Wind today and cooling temps as a cold front approaches. Snow through the weekend with the brunt on Saturday. Totals of 8-15" expected. Flurries to start the new week. 

Nowcast:

    This morning in the mountains, warm prefrontal winds exist out of the WSW, keeping temps relatively warm in the mid-thirties around mountain bases and dipping below freezing at mountain tops. Mountain top winds out of the WSW are in the mid 20's mph with gusts reaching up to the mid 40's. Broken clouds will persist.  

Alta Ski Area showing off this morning

Short term:

     Through the day today temperatures will drop from this morning as the impending cold front approaches. Off the Western U.S. coast a trough is building, as it moves inland winds will increase through the day today and veer (shift clockwise) as the front approaches.

Courtesy of UofU Atmospheric Sciences

    

    The impending cold front will arrive early Saturday morning around 4:00 (denoted by the green highlight above). With it, temperatures will drop significantly into the low teens. The brunt of the storm will come early on with precipitation rates peaking around 2.5"/hr-3.5"/hr in the upper Cottonwoods. With significant temperature drop as the storm progresses SLR will drop along with it bringing some fine right side up Utah Champaign pow to welcome the new year. The Northern Wasatch will be favored by this storm yet snow is to be expected for the more Southerly resorts as well. 

Snow Totals for the upper Cottonwoods are expected to be in the 9-15" range.  

Long term:

                As we look ahead to the coming week the sporadic flurries that will close the weekend may stick around for the start of the week.  With the passage of this weekend's trough, another shortwave will develop behind it, yet may dig too deep down the west coast to bring significant snow totals. That said, cool temperatures and broken clouds on Monday and Tuesday should keep the skiing good with little flurries to compliment.

Avalanche Comments:

                Following a difficult few days for the backcountry community here in Utah we can’t stress enough the importance of being properly equipped with the knowledge, equipment, and experience to travel and ski in the backcountry. Know before you go and have the right equipment. For all things avalanche check in with our friends over at the Utah Avalanche Center.

For reports from the recent avalanche fatalities see the observations page.

 

Happy New Year to all, and to (most) a snowy night!

TL;DR:

Snow tonight and this weekend, with a warmer-than-normal couple of days in between.

Nowcast:

A quick note first: I apologize for the sporadic/non-existent updates the past couple weeks - we should get back to regularly scheduled programming next week.

Now to the forecast - this first day of the New Year has been cold and cloudy ahead of an approaching storm; we stayed dry for most of the day, but snow has started in most of the Central Wasatch and will continue through tomorrow morning. See below for details...

Short-term:

Tonight's snowfall looks decent - here's forecasted snowfall totals through 11am tomorrow from the GFS (left), CMC (middle), and NAM (right):

 

GFS, CMC, and NAM total snowfall, courtesy of Tropical Tidbits

(The Central Wasatch resorts are in the green circle, and the colors' meaning is on the far right.)

There's a fair amount of model disagreement still - for Central Wasatch totals, the pessimistic GFS is showing no more than 6", the CMC is showing 6-12", and the NAM is showing up to 20" in the Cottonwoods. Based on these models and a couple others I haven't shown, I'd say 5-10" by noon tomorrow is reasonable, with the potential for slightly higher amounts in the northern mountains (Snowbasin/PowMow/Bear River Range) as well as NW-flow favored areas like LCC.

Temperatures won't be super cold so the snow won't be the lightest, but there is still work to be done on our snowpack numbers so I'd say that's okay...

Long-term:

After tomorrow, we have a break until about Saturday; during this break, it's supposed to get fairly warm for this time of year with temps up to 10 °F above normal.

Backcountry comments:

Avalanche conditions are dangerous right now, so if you'll be traveling in the backcountry, make sure you have the proper training and equipment and know before you go. For the avalanche forecast and other avy-related resources, check out utahavalanchecenter.org.