TL;DR:
We are currently experiencing sunny skies in the central Wasatch. A weak, dry system will pass tonight, dropping temperatures. Look for a moderate snowstorm this Saturday.
Nowcast:
A ridge of high pressure is in control over the west coast, with much of the storm energy to our north and east. This is leading to mostly sunny skies.
Source: Alta Ski Area |
There is a slight temperature inversion from the surface to 825 mbar and just below 700 mbar, per today's 12z sounding at SLC:
Source: NWS Storm Prediction Center |
Short term:
Expect strong northerly winds this evening as a cold front passes through, dropping temperatures to fridgid levels below -10 °C at crest level. Unfortunately, this system is not associated with any precipitation, with the only real precipitation chances further to our east. Notice the tight packing of red 700-mbar temperature contours in the bottom left panel of the GFS forecast for 8 p.m. MT this evening shown below, indicative of the cold front. Unfortunately, any precipitation will be confined to our north and east (top right panel).
Source: University of Utah Department of Atmospheric Science |
Long Term:
Early Saturday morning, a short-wave trough will dig eastward from the Pacific Northwest, bringing precipitation to the mountains of northern Utah. There is fair model agreement amongst ensemble members in the Utah Snow Ensemble that the mountains of the central Wasatch can expect between 0.4 and 0.7 inches of water with this cold, northwest flow system. With relatively high snow-to-liquid ratios, this can translate to 6 to 12 inches of snow. Not a huge storm, but a good refresh for most mountains.
Source: Utah Department of Atmospheric Science |
Beyond Saturday's storm, high pressure takes control for the foreseeable future, keeping storms to our northwest.
Backcountry Comments:
If you will be traveling in the backcountry make sure you have the proper training and equipment and know before you go. For the avalanche forecast and other avy-related resources, visit utahavalanchecenter.org.
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