Champaign Snow Flows in 25'

 TL;DR:

    Cold temps and snow on the way. 8-13" Saturday with some potential for some lake enhancement! High and dry following this weekend

Nowcast:

    On this fine Friday morning clear blue skies lie above as the sun crests over the Wasatch back. Cool temperatures in the teens sit at mountain bases and up at crest levels. N, NW winds around 10mph blow at mountain tops with gusts poking into the mid 20's. 

Alta Ski Lifts

Short-term:

    The clear skies we see this morning are brought to us by the small ridge that resides over the Southwestern United States. Over the Pacific NW a small positively tilted trough is forming that will dig Southeasterly throughout the day. As the trough moves inland we will see some thin cloud cover in the late afternoon. Additionally, as the trough's associated cold front approaches temperatures will begin to drop. 

U of U Atmospheric Science

    Around 11:00 pm tonight, as the front edge of the trough dips into Northern Utah, the associated cold front arrives. Depicted in the bottom panel of the graphic below, tightly packed dashed lines(negative temperatures, C) move through Utah. We see the dry air associated with the ridge today move out and moister air move in (blue shading representing relative humidity).

U of U Atmospheric Science

    Some prefrontal snow may start around 8:00 pm this evening and will gradually pick up throughout the night. In the early hours of Saturday morning (2:00-3:00) snow will start to fall at higher rates. Steady snow can be expected throughout the day Saturday accompanied by rather low temps in the single digits around mountain crests and only in the teens at mountain bases. With such cold temps, expect high snow-liquid ratios beginning around 10:1 and potentially even reaching up to 15 or 20:1! That is some fine Champaign snow... sorry steamboat, you're not the only place with it; you can't own snow.

    There is some relative agreement among models regarding snow totals. Totals of 8-13" to be expected. That said, throughout the storm, strong NW winds will be blowing the predominant flow across the lake at a perfect angle to increase fetch, bringing strong potential for a repeat of last weekend's lake effect! 

Long-term:

    Around midnight, snow will taper off with some slight chance of post-frontal flurries on Sunday. Accumulations are not likely to break more than a couple of inches. As we move on from this snow storm we will be high and dry for the foreseeable future with a ridge sitting over us for the next 10 days or so. 

Avalanche Comments:

    With the recent storms and more on the way this weekend avalanche activity is to be expected. With a rather widespread PWL on the Northern half of the compass and sporadic winds out of the W and E recently, the mountains will be moving. If you plan to travel in the backcountry, have the proper equipment and knowledge! For all things avalanche check in with our friends over at the Utah Avalanche Center.