Just a little longer

 TL;DR:

Happy Friday! Enjoy the sunshine today and get your tan on while you can. This weekend should give us enough time to soak up the sun and prepare for the next storm cycle.

Nowcast:

Beautiful day up at the Bird today. High in the mid 30's with no shortage of sunshine. There will be light south - southwesterly winds. For now it is the calm before the storm.

Hidden Peak Webcam via Snowbird

Short term:

Going into the weekend, we can expect a transition into some more exciting stuff. The RDPS and NAM models are both predicting some precipitation late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

NAM and RDPS models via SpotWx

First wave of precip can bee seen via Utah Weather

Long term:

After this potential stint of precip rolls through this weekend, things are looking exciting. Models are showing 2-3 low pressures rolling in from the northwest likely bringing heavy precipitation by Monday or Tuesday night and continuing through the week. These models are a bit far out but are looking promising for now. Make sure to check out the latest forecast here at Utah Ski Weather!

Backcountry comments:

If you will be traveling in the backcountry make sure you have the proper equipment and know before you go. For the whole avalanche forecast and all things avalanche head over to our friends at the Utah Avalanche Center.

A bright future

TL;DR:

Clear through the end of the week. Another storm with more potential than the ones we've been seeing recently at the start of next week. 

Nowcast:

It's a beautiful sunny day in Northern Utah today! Temperatures have warmed up from yesterday and are sitting around 17 at ridgelines and 24 at the trailheads/base. Winds are light and from the NW. We have a longwave ridge currently sitting over the region, providing nice, sunny weather. 

Satellite view of current conditions. This is the Upper-level Water Vapor channel. You can see a ridge pattern and no clouds over Northern Utah. Courtesy: College of DuPage

Short-term:

There's not too much exciting to talk about from a short-term standpoint. As a ridge passes over the region, we will have cold, dry weather. I expect the air pollution in the Salt Lake Valley to increase throughout the weekend as we experience the large-scale subsidence associated with the ridge. 

Long-term:

This is where things begin to get exciting. This is the first strong storm we've seen in over a month. The GFS generated Little Cottonwood Guidance from the UofU is going off. Currently, it is predicting ~40 inches, with most of that coming Wednesday. This is likely an overprediction as it is so far out, but still, the most promising thing we've seen in a while. 

GFS derived Time-Height. Courtesy UofU ATMOS

Looking at the time-height plot above, we can see the storm is associated with a cold frontal passage around 12Z on Wednesday (6 MST). Temperatures will warm up Tuesday afternoon/evening as the storm begins. The mountains might get some precipitation before the passage Wednesday morning, but I expect the bulk of the accumulation to happen after 6am MST. 

As far as precipitation totals go, it's we're too far out to even begin to start putting numbers down. The NAEFS has a spread of 10-120 inches, so any estimate would be a shot in the dark. I'm confident it will be something, and it should be better than what we've been getting for the past month. 

After Wednesday, the pattern continues to look active, so we could continue to get large storms through the end of February. Stay tuned for more forecasts where we'll dive into specifics. 

Stay Tuned

TL;DR:

While we may be missing some ingredients for snow now, hang tight, and enjoy the sun this weekend, there is snow on the way next week!

Nowcast:

    It is a cold day in the mountains with temperatures nearing zero at mountain bases, dipping to zero at midmountain levels, and even as low as -6 on mountain ridges.  Mild Northeasterly winds can be found at upper elevations. Visibility is low as the mountains are socked in while we experience the latter half of last night's storm. Despite this, snow totals have been negligible. 

Alta's High Rustler camera, Alta

Short term:

    Looking to the end of this week we will experience more of the high pressure that we saw over the past weekend. With the short trough that is currently leaving Utah on the way out a small area of high pressure will enter the area. With a shift in the flow to a more Southerly pattern we should see rising temperatures with warm air being brought to the state. Meanwhile, another short trough is developing off the coast yet models indicate that this will spin off to a closed low that will move south of Utah and may not even make landfall.

U of U Atmospheric Science

Long term:

    Despite the pattern we are experiencing having some progressive attributes, all the right ingredients for the big storms we saw earlier this season have been absent. This will continue through the weekend and into next week. Following a weekend of nice sunny weather, there is some potential for some snow Sunday night. This storm will be highly dependent on moisture availability as we will have many of the ingredients for a storm yet a dry atmosphere.

Sunday evening, the shortwave trough that could bring some snow is highlighted in the upper map. In the lower map, the dry atmosphere we will have is highlighted. U of U Atmospheric Science

Keep your hopes up as there is potential for a major event in the middle of next week. A strong trough in the Northwest could bring substantial moisture and snow totals to Utah. While it's still too early to say with certainty models are showing some areas of the Wasatch could receive up to an inch of precipitation.

If you plan to travel in the backcountry check in with our friends over at the Utah Avalanche Center.

Only Hard for a Little Longer

 

TL;DR: Warm and dry this weekend with a couple inches expected on Monday and a larger system moving though the middle of next week. 

Nowcast:

Today it will be warmer than the past few days. Curranty, Alta is recording around 43F at the base and 30F at the summit. There are broken upper level clouds that is limiting the exposure to the sun. this might keep the snow solid with little softening throughout the day. 

Short Term:

It will be warm and dry for the rest of the weekend with temps in the mountains in the 40s. Monday there might be a small burst of snow, only a dusting to a few inches. More Significant snow is expected later in the week. 

Long Term:

This is where it gets exciting. Wednesday it looks like we are in for an ok dump. A large low pressure system is moving down from the north and we are right in the bullseye. It looks to move through late Tuesday and through Wednesday. Its hard right now to say how much snow will accompany this from because the modules are forecasting low atmospheric moisture. The GFS seems to be predicting most of the precipitation will fall in southern Utah with the north getting only getting a few inches.

ECMWF 500mb height anomalies

GFS Precip predictions

 

Bitter(cold) Sun Symphony

 TL;DR:

Sunny vibes out today so grab your Zinc and PBRs, but don't forget to bundle up.

Nowcast:

Mr. Sunshine is peaking out for another day! Pack your base layers as the high for today is around 34°F with a windchill in the low teens. Make sure you bring some zinc for your nose and enjoy the apres.

Hidden Peak Webcam via Snowbird

Short term:

Not much to report on for the next day or so. Low pressure system over the Great Plains seems to be moving south pretty rapidly, keeping Utah in a small dry spell. This system is pushing the high pressure ridge out, cueing up the next storm system for an easy entrance into our area.

500 mb map with Low Pressure system to the West of Utah via UUATMOS

Long term:

As the next Storm develops off the coast, there is a good potential for a storm early next week. GDPS seeing precip on Tuesday but other models are not yet seeing anything. As always keep an eye out for more forecasts here on Utah Ski Wx.

GDPS model via SpotWx

If you plan to travel in the backcountry know before you go and have the proper equipment. Check-in with our friends over at the Utah Avalanche Center for the full avalanche forecast.