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TL;DR:

    The warm air will leave the area this evening with the arrival of our next storm. Flurries are to begin this afternoon with a strong cold front kicking the storm into action around midnight. Mountain snow totals of 10-20" possible. 

Nowcast:

As we eagerly await the snow tonight, we are seeing warm temps in the mountains with cloudy skies. Mountain bases are reaching above freezing with ridgelines dipping just slightly below freezing. Winds are blowing out of the West, reaching up to the mid 30mid-30s's with strong gusts breaking up to even 50mph. Temperatures will continue to drop throughout the day as this evening's storm moves inland. 

Short Term: 

Beginning late this afternoon, the trough that is situated over the West Coast of the U.S. will move further inland, bringing with it some prefrontal snow to kick the storm off. the initial snow will be brought by the warm moist air from the SW. In the GFS run below valid at 7:00 tonight the strong injection of moisture can be seen in the bottom right panel. One feature to note is in the bottom left panel the 700 mb temperatures show warm temps accompanying the moisture. That said, expect lower SLR to start the storm. In addition, the closed low that sits off the West coast is highlighted, how this closed low merges with the main trough feature will help to determine how this storm plays out. 

U of U Dept. Atmospheric Science

Around midnight, the upper-level trough will reach Northern Utah, bringing with it the cold air and NW flow. The tight packing of the dotted isotherms (lines of constant temperature) in the bottom left panel below is the cold front. Depending on the timing of the arrival of the cold air in relation to the moisture will be a controlling factor in how much snow this storm delivers. Midnight tonight, the storm will really begin to pick up, and with the cool temps, SLR will begin to increase. 

U of U Dept. Atmospheric Science

 

    The brunt of the storm will pass by 10:00 Tuesday, but light flurries will continue through the day. With the warm start to the storm and temperatures dropping rapidly with the cold front, the storm should come in relatively right side up. In addition we will have to wait and see if the NW flow that will follow the cold front will help to bring some lake effect snow on the back end of the storm. For the mean time, if there is lake effect snow it will be aimed primarily at the Northern Wasatch. 

    The models currently are showing an interesting spread regarding snow totals, We will have to wait and see how the timing of the storm plays out. That said, expect double digits of snow; the upper Cottonwoods could see 10-20" of snow. 

Long Term:

    Following this storm an impressive trough will build off the NW coast priming us for another storm set to arrive this weekend. Looking at the bigger picture, it appears we are in a very progressive, active pattern that will continue for the foreseeable future. 

Backcountry Comments:

    If you plan to travel in the backcountry make sure you are equipped with not only the gear but also the knowledge. Check-in with our friends over at the Utah Avalanche Center for avalanche forecasts, observations, and all things avalanche.