Bundle up, Buckle up, and Bark Baby. Iiiiiiiiiiiiits Tiiiiiiiiime!

TL;DR:

     Lots of snow on the way, bundle up, buckle up, and get ready to rip. Snow today, tomorrow, the next, and the next! Totals reaching up towards 50"! Wahoooooooooooooooo!

Nowcast:

    I hope you enjoyed your small doses of sun and blue sky yesterday as It's a socked-in this morning up in the mountains with the next wave of storms beginning today. Temperatures are cold this morning sitting around the low teens and even dipping to 10 degrees up at the peak of Mt. Baldy. Winds are out of the WNW around 20-30 mph. Light snow has begun and will continue through the day. 

Alta

Short-term:

    After a generous and welcomed first wave through the end of last week, anticipation for the next is high. Snow will begin today and flurry through the day. The cold temps will bring us that light Utah powda snow that we know and love, SLR will peak at around 16:1 this evening as the storm really starts to kick in. While today might not bring exuberant snow totals, the steady snow should deliver around 5-8". Given the W winds some orographic enhancement may help to deliver more. Temps will continue to drop through the day as cold air from the NW is transported to the area. While it is snowing in the mountains today, this is only the beginning, the meat and potatoes is to follow. 

    As seen in the graphic below valid this morning around 5:00 am the real limitation of today's snow will be the limited moisture. That said, there is more moisture upstream from us that will arrive tomorrow, accompanied by some very cold air. Seen on the left side, as the upper-level trough moves inland to Utah some of that favorable NW flow that we love so much will be coming our way.

Department of Atmospheric Science, U of U

Long-term:

    Looking through the remainder of the week is very exciting, the mountains are getting more than one fresh coat of Utah gold, skiing will be excellent to say the least. 

    The first wave of fireworks will really kick in this evening and through Wednesday morning. Favorable upper-level dynamics, moisture, and cold temps will bring low-density snow amounting in 8-12" of snow. Following the first wave, a second, more powerful trough will bring even more moisture starting late Thursday and persisting through Saturday night potentially into Sunday morning. 

    Model agreement is impressive through Saturday, it is safe to say this will be a significant event that will bring some of the highest snow totals we've seen all season. Through Sunday we could see nearly 3.5-4" of water! Usually, this much water would be a big problem, but given the very low temps, the snow will be light and accumulate fast. While the plumes can often produce overpredicted totals it isn't often the Y-axis has increments of 50" of snow and 2" of water! the tight grouping of the lines shows that many model runs are showing similar results. That said, there is no guarantee of 50" of snow but things certainly are looking good for large totals that will bury the mountains. 

Department of Atmospheric Science, U of U

    GFS forecast loop through Sunday. This active pattern has one trough after the next with lots of NW flow to boot!

 Pivotal Weather

Backcountry Comments:

    Folks, if you plan to travel in the backcountry have your head on a swivel. With such a load put on our snow surface, following the prolonged period of high pressure is going to bring the mountains alive. KNOW BEFORE YOU GO and have the proper equipment. Check-in with our friends over at the Utah Avalanche Center for forecasts, observations, and all things avalanche.