Wednesday, January 31, 2024

Blue Today Gone Tomorrow

 

TL;DR:  BLUE SKIES GONNA.. wait.. SNOW! late Thursday, into Friday/Saturday

Nowcast:

KSLC 312047Z 3121/0124 17015G25KT P6SM FEW200
  FM312300 17010KT P6SM SCT100
  FM011500 16006KT P6SM BKN060 BKN100

What more do you need?

At KSLC (airport), effective Jan31, 2047z (13:47 local), winds are expected to be 15 kts from 170degrees (South-SE), gusting to 25, with visibility exceed 6 miles and few clouds (scattered) to 20,000 ft. 

Basically, this: 
Looking EAST, my office, campus. 

The DeMoisy Express is looking nice at Snowbasin. Gloves optional on the skidoo today: 

Short term: 


"Heyyyy - I can see my house from here!" 
GOES-WEST, IR, with 500mb auto Analysis/Annotations
via NEXLAB

The blob of colours from the satellite loop show a southwest flow coming onshore and making it's way inward to Utah, likely hitting southern Utah first and could bring valley rain with mountain snow. 

The NAM has mountain-snow starting mid to late afternoon tomorrow (Thursday) with an inch of the good stuff. Friday into Saturday is continued precipitation with 5-6 inches likely: 

SpotWx output for the NAM (North America Model) https://spotwx.com/products/grib_index.php?model=nam_awphys&lat=40.60457&lon=-111.63963&tz=America/Denver&label=

The experts have issued a Forecast through 5PM Friday with light-orange over the Wasatch Front (say 8ish inches?):

NWS Probabilistic Snow Amounts: https://www.weather.gov/slc/winter

Long term:

The spinning blob (upper portion of satellite image) will continue to bring SW flow into Utah after the weekend, let's hope freezing levels stay low and it collects as snow. 

Backcountry comments: 

Yellow-Yellow-Yellow (Moderate) for the Salt Lake Mountains: 


Keep your eyes peeled on those solar aspects and be mindful of the persistent weak layer. 

If you will be traveling in the backcountry make sure you have the proper equipment and know before you go. For the whole avalanche forecast and all things avalanche head over to our friends at the Utah Avalanche Center here: Utah Avalanche Center

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