Just Missed Us

TL;DR:As a dry storm system moves around Utah it will bring a small band of precipitation to Southern Idaho and Northwest Utah but not quite making it to our ski terrain.

Nowcast: A upper level trough is slowly moving around Utah from the west and is bringing with it a very dry storm system moving south and bringing with it high pressure.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=MTX-N0Q-1-24

We can see proceeding the trough brought a little precipitation but not exactly where it is helpful to ski.

Short Term: As this low developes it will dig hard into Arizona forming a cutoff low over Southern Utah and Arizona as well as some split flow over the Western United States. We will see our band of precipitation dissipate into the afternoon losing our only chance of organized precipitation in the short term. Slight upper level subsidence as well as some cooling aloft will tend to keep temperatures cooler in the short term with the exception of areas with low lying cold pools like the Salt Flats where temperatures will be more persistant as smog continues to slowly build. Mountain temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s and winds from the west southwest blowing 5-10 mph getting up to 20 at upper elevations. Cloud cover will be thinning by the afternoon and winds north of Salt Lake will shift and blow from the east tonight particularly strong at the mouth of canyons.

Temperature data for mid mountain at Alta

It seems like further south and west is expecting some pre-trough precipitation over Southern Colorado and New Mexico so anyone going home to Taos for the holidays can expect a few inches of fresh.

GFS initialized at 0600 UTC 48 hr forecast valid 0600 Thursday

Long Term: As that trough passes through an upper level high pressure ridge will build over us through the weekend bringing with it much warmer and drier conditions. Although there is a good spread in temperature forecasts the general trend is definitely warming with most places being above average warm. Into next week as the ridge diminishes our focus moves to a storm system off the west coast of Northern California which will most likely be our next shot at organized precipitation.

Backcountry Comments: Avalanche conditions are healing well and the weather is looking nice for backcountry travel but it is still important to make sure you have the proper equipment and knw befor you go. For all things avalanche head over to Utah Avalanche Center. 

Courtesy of Utah Avalanche Center