Goldilocks Season

TL;DR:

Another storm moved into the area overnight, providing a welcome refresh to the Central Wasatch after recent warmer weather. Expect lingering snow showers through this evening with continued precipitation later this week.

Nowcast

Temperatures range from 29F at the base of Park City at 7,000' to 24F at the base of Alta at 9,000' to 16F on Mt. Baldy at 11,000'. Winds are light to moderate out of the south with sustained winds of 15-20mph gusting to 30mph on the highest ridgelines. Little Cottonwood Canyon Road is currently CLOSED (as of 7:30am MST 1/15) for avalanche control and is expected to open around 8:30am. Be advised UT-210 in LCC will likely close again around 11am for continued avalanche mitigation. 

With SW flow last night, Deer Valley did well! Image courtesy of Deer Valley Resort.

Overnight Snow Totals 

Alta - 13 inches

Brighton - 12 inches

Deer Valley - 10 inches

Park City Mountain Resort - 6 inches

Snowbird - 11 inches

Solitude - 9 inches

Short Term Forecast

Snow will continue through the day, tapering off sometime around 8:00pm this evening. Temperatures will continue to fall throughout the rest of the day and through the night, reaching the mid-teens at 9,000' and low-20s at 7,000' by Monday morning. Look for a weak storm Tuesday morning, bringing another round of snow to our mountains. This storm looks relatively benign compared to the first.

Storm Total Forecast Snow (8pm Saturday - 8pm Sunday)

Alta - 16 - 22 inches

Brighton - 16 - 22 inches

Deer Valley - 14 - 18 inches

Park City Mountain Resort - 10 -14 inches

Snowbird - 16 - 22 inches

Solitude - 14 - 18 inches

Note - When we as Atmospheric Scientists forecast, we are not so much making predictions that a certain amount of snow will occur but more forecasting the probability that various thresholds will be reached. For example, I forecast 14 - 20 inches for Alta. From a probabilistic standpoint, there is a 75 percent chance Alta exceeds 14 inches and a 25 percent chance Alta exceeds 18 inches. When you see the ensemble plumes (such as the one below), they are not necessarily telling us what will happen but more so showing the range of possible outcomes. For this event, the range of possible outcomes in the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) is roughly from 8 inches to 22 inches through 8pm Sunday 1/15 (~16/00Z).

SREF Ensemble Plumes for Accumulated Snow at Alta-Collins, valid 00Z 1/15 through 12Z 1/18. Image courtesy the Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Utah.

Long Term Forecast

As we look into the longer term, another weak storm looks to come through late next week after the Tuesday brush-by. We will watch these systems and write more detailed forecasts as they approach. After that, it is looking more likely that we will see a drier pattern set up over Northern Utah through the end of the month. Note that drier is simply relative to our climatological snowfall and recent events and does not necessarily mean dry. It is likely that during this upcoming period, temperatures will be slightly below normal with the chance for occasional precipitation.

ECMWF Weekly 7-day Precipitation Anomaly, valid 00Z January 24 - 00Z January 31. Image courtesy of Weatherbell.

With the last month bringing seemingly endless storms, our mountain employees and snow safety teams have been working around the clock to keep us safe. Be sure to thank a patroller or UDOT employee today!

GEFS 500mb Geopotential Height Anomaly Forecast trend from the past 10 model runs, valid 06Z Saturday, January 28 (11pm MST January 27). Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.

 

Backcountry Comments

Avalanche danger is elevated in the backcountry so be sure to head over to our friends at the Utah Avalanche Center.