Tuesday, January 17, 2023

Don't Stop Won't Stop

TL:DR: A Trough will bring more snow today then shortwave ridging will build on Wednesday and quickly be replaced by another low-pressure system on Thursday giving the central Wasatch a dusting of snow. 

Nowcast: Temperatures currently range from 16 F at Brighton to 22 F at Park City. Windspeeds are calm and out of the SE. Snowfall will begin shortly. Here is what we received yesterday:

Past 24-Hour Snow Totals:

Alta: 11"

Snowbird: 17"

Brighton: 17"

Solitude: 12"

Deer Valley: 7"

Park City: 9"

(Mt Superior, Alta 8:11 am https://www.alta.com/weather) 

Short-Term Forecast: High pressure will temporarily move into the region Wednesday bringing calm and cool conditions. Daytime highs will drop a few degrees making it feel more like January. A Trough will then dig its way into Nevada pushing out any high pressure in the region causing a chance of snow sometime after 11 am Thursday. Totals for this event seem to only show a dusting of snow. 


(HRRR Total Precip through 3 am Wednesday, UofUWeather: https://weather.utah.edu/)

Todays Snowfall:

Alta/Snowbird: 3-6"

Brighton/Solitude: 2-4"

Deer Valley/PC: 1-3" 

Long-Term Forecast: Another shortwave ridge seems to bring fair conditions on Saturday followed by another progressive trough on Sunday with the potential for snowfall. Models will need to marinate a bit more before making any conclusions. In a broader picture, It seems our storm track has shifted a bit north due to high pressure residing more closely to the pacific coastline. Storm systems are being pushed up and over this high pressure leaving Utah in an area of uncertainty for storm potential. We will have to wait and see if this pattern is here to stay. 

(GFS 500mb Geopotential Height Anomaly, Tropical Tidbits: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/)


If you are wondering how this winter is shaping up compared to past winters, here is Alta's monthly snowfall data for the past decade.
https://www.alta.com/weather



As always, visit UAC before traveling into the backcountry. 



No comments:

Post a Comment