Snow on the way!

TL;DR - 

Mountain snow starting Thursday and continuing through Friday morning. A more significant storm will impact the region on Sunday through the beginning of next week. 

Nowcast - 

Today the mountains saw some light snow flurries later in the afternoon with moderate winds from the Southwest. The snow should pick up tomorrow. 

Short term - 

The meat and potatoes of our snow this weekend will come Sunday afternoon. A deep trough will make its way southeast over the next few days. This trough is positioned well to advect moisture and instability into the region - perfect ingredients for snow. Below is a plot of the integrated vapor transport, where I've drawn a very simplified synoptic setup in red. 

Courtesy: UofU ATMOS

This synoptic setup is one of the best for high snow totals in Utah. Key ingredients are that the strong cyclonic motion brings moisture and instability inland and that this flow misses the Sierra Mountains in California. The snow totals from the Little Cottonwood Canyon Guidance look quite nice.

Courtesy: UofU ATMOS

Granted, these are based on one model run of the GFS, and things are subject to change. The NAEFS ensemble spread is anywhere from ~15 inches to ~70 inches through Tuesday, with the mean sitting just under 40 inches. 15-20 is a good bet for now. 

Long term -

The unfortunate news is that after this storm, the GFS is pointing to ridging off the west coast that will prevent storms from reaching Utah. The European models don't have this blocking taking hold, so we'll wait and hope the Euro wins. All we can do is enjoy what we have coming for us.