A Big Weekend Ahead!

TL;DR:

A weak trough moved through last night producing a little refresh for the Central Wasatch Mountains. A long-duration precipitation event is on the horizon for this weekend and we could be looking at 2+ feet of new snow by early next week.

24-Hour Snow Totals

Alta - 4"

Brighton - 4"

Deer Valley - 4"

Park City/Canyons - 3"

Snowbird - 4"

Solitude - 3"

Nowcast

Temperatures are chilly this morning ranging from 10F to 19F in the Cottonwoods and roughly 15F to 20F on the Wasatch Back (PCMR and Deer Valley). Visible satellite channels show clearing skies with some scattered cloud cover. Winds are calm at the lower elevations and range from 10-15mph on the ridgelines.

NASA GOES-East Visible Satellite loop showing widespread snow cover over Utah and Colorado this morning. Image courtesy of the College of DuPage.

Short Term

Another short wave trough will move through Northern Utah Friday, producing marginal snow totals. I expect this storm to be relatively similar to last night's quick round of precipitation with snow totals in the 1-4 inch range, depending on location, for the Salt Lake area resorts. See below a loop of the ECMWF model plotting 3-hour averaged precipitation rate. This round of snow will move through quickly before we see the next storm setting up over Northern California on Friday Night

Euro Model showing Mean Sea Level pressure in black and 3-hour precipitation rates. Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.

Long Term

Now for the juicy part of the forecast. Models are converging on a solution for this weekend featuring a broad longwave trough and long-duration precipitation over most of the West this weekend. We could be looking at snow totals upwards of 20 inches in favored locations by next Tuesday.

It is maybe a little early to provide a specific forecast for each resort considering we may see precipitation start midday Sunday and linger until late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. However, I currently would expect 18-24" at the upper elevations in Little Cottonwood with perhaps 14-20" in Big Cottonwood and 12-18" for Park City/Deer Valley.

GFS Downscaled Accumulated Snow for Alta Collins Station at 9662' through Thursday, December 15. Image courtesy of the University of Utah, Department of Atmospheric Sciences.

Note: For those who like to use products from weather.utah.edu, please note that some products are not refreshing or are refreshing infrequently due to updates to the Center for High-Performance Computing at the University of Utah. The famous NAEFS plumes are one product that is currently having issues. 

Backcountry Comments

If you will be traveling in the backcountry make sure you have the proper equipment and know before you go. For the most recent avalanche forecast and all things avalanche head over to our friends at the Utah Avalanche Center.