It's a Powder Day!

TL;DR: It's a powder day in the central Wasatch as resorts are reporting 12-20" of snow. Snow continues today and tapers off this evening. Another wet storm expected this weekend.

Nowcast: Resorts throughout the region are reporting over a foot of snow. Here are totals:

Brighton: 20"

Solitude: 18"

PCMR: 16"

Deer Valley: 14"

Snowbird: 13"

Alta: 12"

Here's Deer Valley's webcam as of 7:00 a.m. local time.

Source: Deer Valley

Note that this has been a right-side-up storm, meaning that the storm came in wet and fairly high-density, and transitioned to drier, low-density snow. This will make for excellent conditions that provide great flotation for skiing and riding.

Current radar imagery from the local KMTX radar shows the continuation of widespread precipitation this morning.

Source: University of Utah Department of Atmospheric Science

Short-Term Forecast:

In northwesterly flow, resorts will continue to see snow throughout the day. These snow showers will be more orographic in nature and have lower densities. The 1200 UTC HRRR model forecasts an additional 0.15 to 0.32 inches of liquid precipitation equivalent for central Wasatch resorts through this evening.

 

Source: University of Utah Department of Atmospheric Science

Assuming roughly 15:1 snow-to-liquid ratios in this cool northwesterly flow, this would translate to roughly 6 inches of additional snow for the central Wasatch. I do think we may see more than that if the right orographics come together, particularly in Little Cottonwood Canyon.

Mid-Long Range Forecast:

We clear out on Thursday and Friday, although we may see additional on-and-off snow showers as moisture from the Pacific Ocean tries to penetrate its way into the interior under southwesterly flow near the surface and westerly flow at upper levels.

Saturday is when the next storm arrives in earnest, and this one will be another wet one, with southwesterly flow in the prefrontal phase and high moisture transport from the Pacific Ocean.

Source: University of Utah Department of Atmospheric Science

The 0000 UTC European model valid at 0600 UTC on Sunday (around midnight local time), forecasts 700 mb (near mountain crest level) temperatures to be between -2 and -4 °C (see dashed red contours in the bottom left plot above). This would indicate that freezing levels would be around mid-mountain, so we could deal with rain at the lower elevations. Upper elevations will see snow, but it will be heavy and wet.

In the period from Friday morning through Sunday night, the 0600 UTC GFS downscaled product for Alta-Collins forecasts a whopping 3.5 inches of total precipitation. Remember that the snow will be dense, so snow totals will likely be a bit lower than we'd expect with this much water in the forecasts. Regardless, this is great for our mountains.

Snowfall Forecasts:

For today, expect an additional 5-10" of snow for the central Wasatch, with LCC most likely ending up on the upper end of snow totals.

For the storm on Saturday and Sunday, I don't want to begin to forecast specific amounts due to tricky snow levels and lots of moisture in this storm but expect multiple feet of wet snow in the Wasatch.

Avalanche danger has spiked to high today, so if you do venture in the backcountry be prepared and read the Utah Avalanche Center forecast before traveling.

Enjoy today's spectacular powder day!