New year, new weather pattern?

TL;DR

A wet but warm storm will ring in the New Year; a slightly colder storm may follow to kick off the first full week of 2026.

Nowcast

First things first: a sunrise mountain vista from PCMR's Crescent cam:

Courtesy of OpenSnow

We sit under a high pressure ridge and a resulting temperature inversion this morning, with upper-mountain temps comfortably in the 30s °F and canyon bottoms in the high 10s to low 20s °F. The clear skies we're currently seeing won't last, as initially high-based clouds will overspread our mountains by the end of the day. Expect mountain highs to get well into the 30s (and possibly 40s) °F ahead of our approaching storm - keep reading for more on that...

Short-term

We'll ring in the New Year with ample atmospheric moisture; unfortunately for winter sports enthusiasts, though, this moisture is coming from the southwest and will thus be paired with warm air - temps will just barely fall below freezing at 700mb/~10,000ft, resulting in rain at lower elevations and rather dense snow where snow does fall.

Expect precipitation to start by sunrise tomorrow, continuing off and on through Friday. Models are showing a range of 0.5-1.5" of liquid, with an average of about 1"; this would translate to 8" of snow based on an SLR of 8:1 (which I think is fairly realistic). However, this snow can only fall where it is cold enough to snow, and like I mentioned earlier, summit temps will just barely dip below freezing, so lower-elevation locations will see much less (or even zero) snow.

Long-term

Models are indicating another storm around January 5th (next Monday), and temps are looking a few degrees colder for this period compared to what we're expecting in the next couple of days... hopefully we can get some better-quality snow, and maybe I won't have to mention the word "rain" in my forecast :)

Happy New Year!

As always, if you will be skiing or riding in the backcountry, be sure you have the proper training and equipment and know before you go. For the avalanche forecast and other avy-related resources, go to utahavalanchecenter.org.