TL;DR:
The very start of the week will feature more of the same weather we've seen recently, but we will see a change in the pattern by Wednesday. We'll be on the periphery of the best storms for the long-term, but chances for snow will still exist.
Nowcast:
It's a calm, clear, and temperature-inverted morning out there, with bases around 30°F and summits around 35°F. Here's the view from one of my favorite vistas, the top of the Crescent chair at PCMR:
For today, expect similar conditions to the past few days: valley haze, plenty of sun, and highs around 40°F at the summits.
Short-term (through Wednesday night):
The synoptic setup recently has featured a big old ridge that has kept exciting weather away from us; however, this ridge is supposed to flatten by Wednesday, bringing with it some much-needed precipitation. Models are generally agreeing on about 0.5" of liquid water, which paired with warm temps (only getting down to the low 20s °F at 700mb/~10,000') should yield 1-4" of snow for most locations, with the northernmost mountains and high elevations like the upper Cottonwoods possibly doing slightly better. Timingwise, rain/snow starts around mid-to-late morning on Wednesday and should wind down by midnight the same day.
Long-term (after Wednesday night):
There's good news and bad news in the long-term. The bad news is that the best dynamics and moisture will mostly slide north of us, so a huge blockbuster storm is unlikely. The good news, however, is that we're not too far off the storm track, so an extended dry spell is unlikely; we should at least be getting scraps. In fact, if the model plumes are to be believed, we should do quite well - check out the Utah snow ensemble plumes for Alta for the next seven days:
There is clearly model uncertainty, but there is also clearly an upward-sloping line, and that's a win in my book!
FYI, we at Utah Ski Weather are taking the next couple of weeks off to enjoy our holiday break; while there may be an update here and there, expect regular forecasts to start sometime in January!
If you will be skiing or riding in the backcountry, be sure you have the proper training and equipment and know before you go. For the avalanche forecast and other avy-related resources, go to utahavalanchecenter.org.
