New year, new weather pattern?

TL;DR

A wet but warm storm will ring in the New Year; a slightly colder storm may follow to kick off the first full week of 2026.

Nowcast

First things first: a sunrise mountain vista from PCMR's Crescent cam:

Courtesy of OpenSnow

We sit under a high pressure ridge and a resulting temperature inversion this morning, with upper-mountain temps comfortably in the 30s °F and canyon bottoms in the high 10s to low 20s °F. The clear skies we're currently seeing won't last, as initially high-based clouds will overspread our mountains by the end of the day. Expect mountain highs to get well into the 30s (and possibly 40s) °F ahead of our approaching storm - keep reading for more on that...

Short-term

We'll ring in the New Year with ample atmospheric moisture; unfortunately for winter sports enthusiasts, though, this moisture is coming from the southwest and will thus be paired with warm air - temps will just barely fall below freezing at 700mb/~10,000ft, resulting in rain at lower elevations and rather dense snow where snow does fall.

Expect precipitation to start by sunrise tomorrow, continuing off and on through Friday. Models are showing a range of 0.5-1.5" of liquid, with an average of about 1"; this would translate to 8" of snow based on an SLR of 8:1 (which I think is fairly realistic). However, this snow can only fall where it is cold enough to snow, and like I mentioned earlier, summit temps will just barely dip below freezing, so lower-elevation locations will see much less (or even zero) snow.

Long-term

Models are indicating another storm around January 5th (next Monday), and temps are looking a few degrees colder for this period compared to what we're expecting in the next couple of days... hopefully we can get some better-quality snow, and maybe I won't have to mention the word "rain" in my forecast :)

Happy New Year!

As always, if you will be skiing or riding in the backcountry, be sure you have the proper training and equipment and know before you go. For the avalanche forecast and other avy-related resources, go to utahavalanchecenter.org.

The end of this monotonous weather is in sight!

TL;DR:

The very start of the week will feature more of the same weather we've seen recently, but we will see a change in the pattern by Wednesday. We'll be on the periphery of the best storms for the long-term, but chances for snow will still exist.

Nowcast:

It's a calm, clear, and temperature-inverted morning out there, with bases around 30°F and summits around 35°F. Here's the view from one of my favorite vistas, the top of the Crescent chair at PCMR:

Courtesy of OpenSnow

For today, expect similar conditions to the past few days: valley haze, plenty of sun, and highs around 40°F at the summits.

Short-term (through Wednesday night):

The synoptic setup recently has featured a big old ridge that has kept exciting weather away from us; however, this ridge is supposed to flatten by Wednesday, bringing with it some much-needed precipitation. Models are generally agreeing on about 0.5" of liquid water, which paired with warm temps (only getting down to the low 20s °F at 700mb/~10,000') should yield 1-4" of snow for most locations, with the northernmost mountains and high elevations like the upper Cottonwoods possibly doing slightly better. Timingwise, rain/snow starts around mid-to-late morning on Wednesday and should wind down by midnight the same day.

Long-term (after Wednesday night):

There's good news and bad news in the long-term. The bad news is that the best dynamics and moisture will mostly slide north of us, so a huge blockbuster storm is unlikely. The good news, however, is that we're not too far off the storm track, so an extended dry spell is unlikely; we should at least be getting scraps. In fact, if the model plumes are to be believed, we should do quite well - check out the Utah snow ensemble plumes for Alta for the next seven days:

Courtesy of the U of U Department of Atmospheric Sciences

There is clearly model uncertainty, but there is also clearly an upward-sloping line, and that's a win in my book!

FYI, we at Utah Ski Weather are taking the next couple of weeks off to enjoy our holiday break; while there may be an update here and there, expect regular forecasts to start sometime in January!

If you will be skiing or riding in the backcountry, be sure you have the proper training and equipment and know before you go. For the avalanche forecast and other avy-related resources, go to utahavalanchecenter.org.