Warm Air, Moist Air, Snow Here and There

TL;DR:

    Light flurries will continue throughout the day with warmer temps and light winds. Much of the same is to come this week. Keep your low light lenses in and forget lots of layers, no need in the warmer temps.

Nowcast:

    As a light snow falls this morning, the sky is cloudy and the air warm. Temperatures are just below freezing around mountain bases and dipping to the low twenties around mountain tops. Expect continued light flurries throughout the day with warmer mountain temps.  

Alta

Short-Term:

    Today, an embedded shortwave trough will move over Utah, bringing with it some moisture and lots of warm moist air. While we can expect some precipitation today, don't get your hopes up as this precipitation is enabled by the moist air and the help of orographically induced precip.

As highlighted below in the upper left panel you can see the embedded trough situate itself over Utah. One feature to note is how the flow splits. The split flow is highlighted in both the upper left panel and the bottom right panel. You can see how the moist air has split around Utah. As a result of the split flow Northern and Southern Utah may see more promising totals than the cottonwood canyons. 

In the cottonwood canyons small snow totals are expected topping out at an inch or two. Models show the freezing level remaining elevated as the warm air is advected to the area. The warm air we are receiving is a double-edged sword, with it we are seeing higher temperatures but it's providing the moisture needed for any precipitation. 

U of U Atmospheric Science

Long-Term:

    Looking through the next week, the current weather pattern we are experiencing will continue. The embedded trough that will be set up over Utah today will park itself yet will continue to dig South. As a result, the moisture will continue to miss us. Small flurries like we're experiencing today will happen throughout the week, but large snow totals shouldn't be expected.  

Backcountry Comments:

The backcountry remains a place to hold extra caution; avalanche conditions are considerable on low, mid, and upper elevation slopes from the west side of the compass to the Southeast side. One thing to keep in mind when traveling in the backcountry is the difficulty of making avalanche decisions in conditions such as the ones we are experiencing.  The choice is not clear as it is with low and extreme danger; during periods of considerable danger, the most avalanche fatalities have occurred. 

Snowbrains.com

If you plan to travel in the backcountry, make sure you are properly equipped and know before you go. For a full avalanche forecast, observations, and all things avalanche head over to our friends over at the Utah Avalanche Center.

If you are a snow nerd like many of us, you may find this new research that could change the way snowmaking is performed. Find it here!