The Snow Continues

TL;DR:

Calm conditions today will change to mountain snow and valley snow and rain overnight as our next storm moves in. Potential for more snow over the weekend.

Nowcast:

We are currently situated under a shortwave ridge that is responsible for the calm conditions we are experiencing today. Cold temperatures persist from our pervious storm system. You can expect a high near freezing for today with calm winds around 5 mph. Although it is cold, it could always be worse. The Midwest and Great Plains are experiencing extremely cold weather with temperatures near or below 0 F and wind chill values well below.

Temperatures across the US as of 11 am MST (18 UTC)

The shortwave ridge will persist throughout the day but will begin to weaken as the next trough moves into the region overnight through early morning Wednesday. A chance of precipitation is possible with the passage of this trough.

The 4-panel plot from weather.utah.edu showing 500mb heights, precipitation, temperature, and IVT for the upcoming trough passage 

Short term:

Precipitation is expected with this trough, but there is uncertainty in precipitation type. Snow is expected in the valley Wednesday morning transitioning to rain by the afternoon as temperatures begin to increase. Southerly flow will be the culprit of the snow to rain transition in the Salt Lake Valley. Snow totals are dependent on when and if the winds shift to southerly. Valley snow totals range from no accumulation to 2 inches.

A winter weather advisory exists for the North and Central Utah mountains. Expected snowfall for the Cottonwoods is around 15 inches, with the low end being around 9 inches and the high end around 17 inches. Mountain snow is expected to persist through Thursday morning.

National Weather Service forecasted snowfall totals

Long term:

Mountain snow will taper off Thursday as another ridge will build over the Western US. Models show multiple lows dancing over the Pacific with a shortwave trough branching off from one of these lows and moving over the Western US this weekend. This shortwave trough has the potential to impact Utah on Saturday. 

Scattered precipitation will persist over the Western US through early next week, but will miss the Northern Utah mountains.  The next chance for precipitation in Utah is late next week as a there is potential for a digging trough to impact our region. Check back with the forecast next week to see how these storms evolve. 

Backcountry comments:

Dangerous avalanche conditions persist, and backcountry travel is not recommended. The existing avalanche hazards are a persistent weak layer and wind drifted snow on most faces and elevations of the mountain. Everyone should stay off and out from under slopes steeper than 30 degrees. Check the full forecast at UAC.

UAC Avalanche forecast for Salt Lake Mountains

Courtesy

Ashley Evans