Here Comes Something

TL; DR: Low pressure has reached southern Utah and will linger through Saturday night. As for us, a cold front will shift to northern Utah beginning Saturday morning (tomorrow). Once this low pressure exits the Wasatch, we will be back in high pressure persisting until at least midweek of next week. 

Also! My name is Benji. I have not been set up with an account to access this blog yet, so Colin was nice enough to let me post under his. Sorry for the confusion. 

Nowcast: 

Lucky me. This will be my first ever weather forecast, and it just so happens to fall on the first full day of winter (Astronomically speaking, that is). 

Temps are high around the valley, with most observations reporting low 50F's. Unlike earlier in the week however, there is no noticeable inversion (mountain temps hover close to 40F). 

Unseasonal temps for Salt Lake Valley as of Dec 22 via https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?obs=true&wfo=slc

Collins Gulch located at Alta Ski Resort as of 1130AM local time sits at 28F, with plenty of decent to good skiing to be had. 

 

As noted earlier in the week, PM2.5 began their decent on Tuesday, and have stayed low since. This doesn't have much effect on us as skiers, but as human being living in the valley, this has been a great help. 

PM2.5 Time Series for the past 7 days via https://utahaq.chpc.utah.edu

Lastly, let's take a look at the water vapor channel from above. We see a light system brushing the southern portion of our state, with a stronger system hovering around Arizona and Southern California. (Note the difference shades of green). 

Short Term: 

There is much agreement that a system will begin to affect the region as of 6:00AM local time on Saturday. We can expect up to 10", however, some models suggest as low as 2". Given the season we have had thus far, I am going to go ahead and call this worthy of a white Christmas. However, feel free to ignore my exaggeration and note the plateauing line as seen below. Good news is we can at the least expect for our smog to dissipate entirely at least for the moment. 

Ensemble plumes via https://weather.utah.edu

Long Term; 

Keep an eye on whether or not this system lingers for longer, or if we get stuck back in a high pressure system going towards the end of the calendar year. 

Backcountry Comments: 

The compass is green. Whether or not those big backcountry missions you have circled in your to-do notebook contain enough snow for fun riding conditions remain to be seen, but travel to should be safe. As always, don't do anything careless. 

No avalanches have been reported recently, but do check out this nicely written summary from Mount Wolverine near the top of Little Cottonwood: Mt. Wolverine Obs.