TL;DR:
Potential for a big storm starting tomorrow night, lasting through the weekend with some model spread for the exact precipitation amount. A window of fair weather should follow, with another storm potentially coming in later next week.
Nowcast:
It’s a partially cloudy 16° F balmy day up at mid-mountain today. For those of us in the valley dealing with the air pollution, it looks great up in the mountains.
Mount Superior Webcam Courtesy of Alta
Short term:
Using the GFS for guidance, It looks like our next storm will be starting around 11 am on Friday. This storm track seems to hover over Northern Utah through the weekend. A quick look at 700 mb wind barbs shows dominant Westerly - North Westerly flow, favoring some orographic enhancement for our beloved ski areas.
Should be a good storm to hit early as the largest snow-to-water ratio is expected at the beginning of the storm. With temperatures expected to increase throughout the weekend, acting to lower the snow-to-water ratio. A look at the NAEFS plumes shows a large model spread, adding uncertainty to the exact amount of snow we expect to receive. The mean of these plumes is showing around 3 feet of snow by the end of the storm, with most of the accumulation happening from Friday night through Early Sunday.
Long term:
After this weekend's storm, a ridge will begin building in the Great Basin area, bringing fair weather and warmer temperatures. Make sure to check back in for the latest mountain forecast as we see some potential for another storm later next week!
Backcountry comments:
If you will be traveling in the backcountry make sure you have the proper equipment and know before you go. For the whole avalanche forecast and all things avalanche head over to our friends at the Utah Avalanche Center.
No comments:
Post a Comment