Keep on Keeping on

TL;DR: Today we will see a few inches fall throughout the day associated with a shortwave passing by the region. Beginning Saturday night, a more significant low-pressure trough will enter the region dropping anywhere between 1-2 feet of snow through Sunday. 

NOWCAST: A gloomy darkness is currently approaching the Wasatch front. It is 20 F at Alta and 18 F at Brighton with light winds from the WNW. 

(Alta: https://www.alta.com/weather)

Short-Term Forecast: Expect daytime highs to be in the mid-teens the next two days with lows in the upper single digits. Moderate ridgeline winds will switch from W to SW on Sunday. An approaching low-pressure trough will start snowfall Saturday night which will last through Sunday. Approximately 1-2 feet of snow will fall at Wasatch resorts. There is large variability between the ensemble of short-range models (SREF) and long-range models (NAEFS) for snowfall totals in this storm. So far this winter, SREF has consistently shown a dry bias for snowfall totals while NAEFS has slightly over forecasted but gotten closer to observed totals. Below shows how little these ensembles agree with each other on this storm. From how this winter has gone thus far, I would say snowfall totals will end up somewhere around the NAEFS mean or a bit lower. 

(SREF, https://weather.utah.edu/)

(NAEFS, https://weather.utah.edu/)

Long-Term Forecast: Saturday's low-pressure trough seems to be a stubborn one wanting to sit in the region until next week. This brings the potential of shortwave systems moving through the region with minor snowfall potential throughout the week. Models have already shown great variability between runs so we will need to wait and see how it plays out. 

(500mb geopotential height anomaly, Tropical Tidbits: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/)