A snowy weekend is on tap for the Wasatch, with two weak to moderate systems impacting the range.
Short-term Forecast:
We'll clear out and warm up to start the work week.
Nowcast:
Park City Mountain Resort is the only area in the central Wasatch that is reporting new snow this morning, with 1 in. in the past 24 hours. Under low level southerly flow and upper level west-northwest flow, snow is entering the region particularly north of I-80. Radar estimated precipitation rates from the KMTX radar at 1449 UTC reflect this well, with the highest precipitation rates in the northern Wasatch.
 |
| Source: University of Utah Department of Atmospheric Science |
Short-term Forecast:
An upper-level trough passes through the region tomorrow morning, bringing moderate precipitation, especially areas to our north. The 0600 UTC GFS forecast shown below predicts the trough axis to be centered over Utah at 8:00 a.m. local time tomorrow (upper left panel) bringing maximum 3-h precipitation totals of 0.05 to 0.1 in (upper right panel). Nothing too impressive, but this will provide a nice little refresh.
Under west-northwesterly crest-level flow (lower left panel), snow-to-liquid ratios should be on the higher side, so this will be a nice fluffy event. The typical NW flow favored areas of LCC should perform best in the central Wasatch during this event.
 |
| Source: University of Utah Department of Atmospheric Science |
Under west-northwesterly crest-level flow (lower left panel), snow-to-liquid ratios should be on the higher side, so this will be a nice fluffy event. The typical NW flow favored areas of LCC should perform best in the central Wasatch during this event.
Through 5:00 p.m. local time, the GFS calls for just 0.24 in. of total precipitation at Alta, while the HRRR forecasts 1.03 in. of liquid water equivalent for the site. If we meet in the middle of the two forecasts, this would translate to roughly 7-10" of snow. Not a huge storm, but a nice refresh to start the weekend.
Mid-Long Range Forecast:
We dry out briefly on Saturday afternoon and evening, but that won't last long, as another wave of precipitation will bring snow to the central Wasatch on Sunday around midday.
We will be on the periphery of a closed low (upper left panel) that will bring heavier precipitation to the Sierra Nevada, while the Wasatch will see more modest precipitation rates, before things dry out by Monday morning.
Expect another 5" inches from this second wave. Again, not huge, but it'll be a nice refresh. The two precipitation systems show up nicely on the University of Utah Alta GFS derived forecast. We can clearly see the action getting going today, a brief break on Saturday, and then another impulse on Sunday. The GFS is drier than the HRRR, and I expect totals to be a bit higher than what the GFS calls for in the plot shown below.
 |
| Source: University of Utah Department of Atmospheric Science |
Expect another 5" inches from this second wave. Again, not huge, but it'll be a nice refresh. The two precipitation systems show up nicely on the University of Utah Alta GFS derived forecast. We can clearly see the action getting going today, a brief break on Saturday, and then another impulse on Sunday. The GFS is drier than the HRRR, and I expect totals to be a bit higher than what the GFS calls for in the plot shown below.
 |
| Source: University of Utah Department of Atmospheric Science |
We'll clear out and warm up to start the work week.
Snowfall Forecast:
For the entire weekend, here are my forecast snowfall totals.
LCC: 10-15" (will do well under NW flow)
BCC: 8-12"
PC/DV: 6-10"
Enjoy the new snow!
No comments:
Post a Comment