TL;DR:
The storm has passed, for now. Clear skies today and tomorrow, with another storm coming in this weekend. The active pattern that has produced so much snow over the past 30 days shows little signs of stopping. Alta is currently the snowiest ski area on planet Earth; it's a great time to forecast weather and ski in Utah!
Nowcast:
Bluebird day in the mountains today. Below is the cam from Alta. Probably feeling a little FOMO if you're sitting at your desk like I am today.
I expect temperatures to remain below freezing throughout the day, with low to moderate winds. As I said, a great day to be skiing...
Short-term:
Not too much to write about from a short-term standpoint. Weather will remain clear throughout today and tomorrow. The main concern from a skiing standpoint is the temperatures tomorrow. I expect the mountain base to be above freezing, with near-freezing temperatures at mountaintop. Below is a GFS time-height plot at Alta. The blue line in the figure represents the freezing level; you
can see it gets well above the town of Alta.
Long-term:
Later this weekend, we will get another system that will impact the state. This system looks to be eaten up more by the Sierra Mountains than the one earlier this week, but we could still get some solid accumulation. This system will be followed by 2 more pulses of moisture, both weaker than the first.
The real question will be how much moisture can sneak by the Sierras. We will have a better picture later in the week. This uncertainty is expressed in the ensembles; the spread is around 35 inches for this first storm. I put a vertical red line in the figure where I suggest the transition is between the storms.
Based on the ensemble, it's really up in the air with regard to what accumulation we can expect. A moderate amount (15 inches) is likely (90% chance), as only a few members produce less than 15 inches. Look for forecasts tomorrow and Saturday to get a more accurate picture of how much we can expect.
In the final frames of both the GFS and European Model runs, a blocking ridge shows up over the Eastern Pacific. This is too far out to really be concerned about, but there is a possibility of a pattern shift...
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