Monday, December 26, 2022

Here she comes!

TL;DR: 

Snow will impact the region starting midmorning tomorrow and continuing through Wednesday afternoon. Highest snowfall rates will likely be overnight Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. There will be a break, and we will probably swear in the new year with another storm. 

Nowcast:

This morning looks slightly overcast due to the beginning of this storm. Here are the current conditions at Alta. 

Courtesy: Alta Ski Area

The temperature is around 30 degrees F, clear up to the summit. It should continue to warm up throughout the day to the mid-30s. 

Short-term:

More snow is on the way. A large-scale Pacific storm will make its way into Utah, carrying the critical ingredients for snow - moisture and instability. The beginning of the storm looks like it will come in warm, and there will be a frontal passage around midmorning on Tuesday. This is when the snowfall will likely intensify. We can easily see this when looking at the temperature and dewpoint forecast. Look for the jump in dewpoint and drop in temperature - this is the frontal passage. 



Courtesy: UofU ATMOS

The next question is, how much snow will we likely get? Lots of things are in play with this storm, but there is potential for serious accumulation and warmer weather, so good graupel skiing is possible. The HRRR model is saying ~2 inches of water through Wednesday at 5AM, whereas Jim Steenburgh's GFS-derived Cottonwood Canyon forecast is saying just under 2 inches. The SREF ensembles disagree with the lowest mean at 15 inches, and the highest mean at 30+ inches. I would put the total for this first storm through Wednesday evening around 25 inches in the mountains. Likely some valley snow accumulation as well, but not until Wednesday morning when the freezing level drops.  

Long-term:

This active cycle shows no signs of stopping in the GFS. We have another solid-looking storm around the New Year, and they just keep coming. I'll leave y'all with a picture that is the best Christmas gift I could've asked for. I'll take what we've got right now and knock on some wood hoping that it won't change. 

Courtesy: NRCS

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