New year, new weather pattern?

TL;DR

A wet but warm storm will ring in the New Year; a slightly colder storm may follow to kick off the first full week of 2026.

Nowcast

First things first: a sunrise mountain vista from PCMR's Crescent cam:

Courtesy of OpenSnow

We sit under a high pressure ridge and a resulting temperature inversion this morning, with upper-mountain temps comfortably in the 30s °F and canyon bottoms in the high 10s to low 20s °F. The clear skies we're currently seeing won't last, as initially high-based clouds will overspread our mountains by the end of the day. Expect mountain highs to get well into the 30s (and possibly 40s) °F ahead of our approaching storm - keep reading for more on that...

Short-term

We'll ring in the New Year with ample atmospheric moisture; unfortunately for winter sports enthusiasts, though, this moisture is coming from the southwest and will thus be paired with warm air - temps will just barely fall below freezing at 700mb/~10,000ft, resulting in rain at lower elevations and rather dense snow where snow does fall.

Expect precipitation to start by sunrise tomorrow, continuing off and on through Friday. Models are showing a range of 0.5-1.5" of liquid, with an average of about 1"; this would translate to 8" of snow based on an SLR of 8:1 (which I think is fairly realistic). However, this snow can only fall where it is cold enough to snow, and like I mentioned earlier, summit temps will just barely dip below freezing, so lower-elevation locations will see much less (or even zero) snow.

Long-term

Models are indicating another storm around January 5th (next Monday), and temps are looking a few degrees colder for this period compared to what we're expecting in the next couple of days... hopefully we can get some better-quality snow, and maybe I won't have to mention the word "rain" in my forecast :)

Happy New Year!

As always, if you will be skiing or riding in the backcountry, be sure you have the proper training and equipment and know before you go. For the avalanche forecast and other avy-related resources, go to utahavalanchecenter.org.

The end of this monotonous weather is in sight!

TL;DR:

The very start of the week will feature more of the same weather we've seen recently, but we will see a change in the pattern by Wednesday. We'll be on the periphery of the best storms for the long-term, but chances for snow will still exist.

Nowcast:

It's a calm, clear, and temperature-inverted morning out there, with bases around 30°F and summits around 35°F. Here's the view from one of my favorite vistas, the top of the Crescent chair at PCMR:

Courtesy of OpenSnow

For today, expect similar conditions to the past few days: valley haze, plenty of sun, and highs around 40°F at the summits.

Short-term (through Wednesday night):

The synoptic setup recently has featured a big old ridge that has kept exciting weather away from us; however, this ridge is supposed to flatten by Wednesday, bringing with it some much-needed precipitation. Models are generally agreeing on about 0.5" of liquid water, which paired with warm temps (only getting down to the low 20s °F at 700mb/~10,000') should yield 1-4" of snow for most locations, with the northernmost mountains and high elevations like the upper Cottonwoods possibly doing slightly better. Timingwise, rain/snow starts around mid-to-late morning on Wednesday and should wind down by midnight the same day.

Long-term (after Wednesday night):

There's good news and bad news in the long-term. The bad news is that the best dynamics and moisture will mostly slide north of us, so a huge blockbuster storm is unlikely. The good news, however, is that we're not too far off the storm track, so an extended dry spell is unlikely; we should at least be getting scraps. In fact, if the model plumes are to be believed, we should do quite well - check out the Utah snow ensemble plumes for Alta for the next seven days:

Courtesy of the U of U Department of Atmospheric Sciences

There is clearly model uncertainty, but there is also clearly an upward-sloping line, and that's a win in my book!

FYI, we at Utah Ski Weather are taking the next couple of weeks off to enjoy our holiday break; while there may be an update here and there, expect regular forecasts to start sometime in January!

If you will be skiing or riding in the backcountry, be sure you have the proper training and equipment and know before you go. For the avalanche forecast and other avy-related resources, go to utahavalanchecenter.org.

From record-high temps to snow we go

TL;DR:

Light snow and clouds today, clouds and near-average temperatures this weekend, then colder and snowy next week...

Nowcast:

It's a gray morning out there - here's what the webcam near the top of PCMR's Crescent lift is seeing...

PCMR Crescent webcam, courtesy of OpenSnow

Temperatures have cooled off from their unseasonably high values from earlier this week and now hover around 30°F on the lower mountains and around 20°F at the highest summits; today, they'll top out at about 10°F above their current values. We'll also see cloudy skies, a good chance of snow, and gusty winds, especially this afternoon.

Short-term:

We'll stay dry but cloudy this weekend, and temps will remain similar to today's.

Long-term:

The long-term looks promising for those who aren't quite ready for spring and would prefer a taste of winter - have a look at the snow ensemble plumes for the next ten days:

Snow ensemble plumes, courtesy of the U of U's Department of Atmospheric Sciences

I think the first part (up until about April 1st) might be a little overforecasted - I'm not convinced Canyons-Daybreak will see 9 inches of snow in the next 24 hours - but I'm willing to believe the second part, which shows a healthy dose of snow between roughly April 1st and April 5th. A bonus: upper-mountain temps should drop to about 20°F with this storm, meaning solid SLRs and solid quality snow!

There is a good chance that this is the last USW post of the season - if another forecast does come out I'll see you then, but if not, have a fantastic spring skiing season (and summer) and thank you so much for following along this winter! We'll be back sometime in November once the snow starts falling.

As always, if you will be traveling in the backcountry, ensure you have the proper gear and training and know before you go. For the avalanche forecast and other avy-related resources, visit utahavalanchecenter.org.

From spring-like to winter-like

TL;DR:

The week will start off warm and clear and end cold and snowy, and the snowy period looks promising...

Nowcast:

(Note: I apologize if the images today are a little blurry - I'm not sure why that is, but I'll work to get it fixed for the next forecast.)

It is another clear, mild morning in the Wasatch - a precursor to another spring-like day. Here's what the webcam at Solitude is seeing at Honeycomb Canyon:

Honeycomb Canyon webcam, courtesy of OpenSnow

For today, expect weather similar to what we've seen the past few days - mountain highs in the high 30s °F, nearly clear skies, and generally light winds.

Short-term:

We have another couple of calm days ahead of us, although temperatures will gradually fall and cloud coverage will increase ahead of a weather shift slated for Thursday. Check out the long-term below to find out more...

Long-term:

Snow returns on Thursday as a trough crosses the western US, and right now things are looking quite promising on the snow ensemble plumes:

Snow ensemble plumes for Canyons-Daybreak, courtesy of the University of Utah's Department of Atmospheric Sciences

Forty inches in seven days for Canyons-Daybreak?! And there's other evidence that a quite snowy period could be ahead -- here are two other graphics from NOAA showing greater than 50% chances of above-normal precipitation and below-average temperatures:

Medium/long-range forecasts, courtesy of NOAA

I frequently say that I don't tend to trust models more than about three days out, but the ensemble plumes plus these long-range outlooks certainly have my attention and I'll definitely be keeping an eye on this...

Enjoy the next couple days of spring-like weather before snow makes a comeback, and thanks for reading!

If you will be skiing or riding in the backcountry, be sure you have the proper training and equipment and know before you go. For the avalanche forecast and other avy-related resources, go to utahavalanchecenter.org.

Spring-like this weekend, winter-like next week

TL;DR:

A relatively warm and dry, but somewhat windy and cloudy couple of days are ahead; next week, we'll see the return of winter with upwards of a foot of snow likely by Friday.

Nowcast:

It's a (relatively) warm and sunny morning in the mountains; even Snowbird's Hidden Peak at 11,000' is above freezing (although it's worth noting that there is a bit of wind chill, bringing the feel-like temperature into the mid-20s °F):

Weather data from Snowbird's Hidden Peak, courtesy of the National Weather Service

For today, expect mountain highs in the mid to high 30s °F, sunny skies, and mostly light winds. It's not quite spring skiing yet, but it is a good teaser!

Short-term:

The weekend weather will be similar to the weather of the past couple of days in that it'll be mild and dry; however, winds and cloud cover will increase ahead of next week's snow. Keep reading for more on that...

Long-term:

It's pretty clear from the models that winter is returning to the Wasatch next week:

Utah snow ensemble plumes for Canyons-Daybreak, courtesy of the U of U's Department of Atmospheric Sciences

However, they're struggling on the strength and timing of the storm. Even the snow ensemble plume above has two main possibilities: the GEFS (blue line) shows two distinct waves with a storm total of 30", while the ENS (pink line) favors a more gradual/continuous accumulation topping out at just over 15". A couple of other models I looked at seemed to like the "two distinct waves" solution better and favored 12-20" by next Friday.

Either way, I'd mark March 4th and 6th-7th on your calendars as potentially deep days...

If you will be traveling in the backcountry, make sure you have the proper gear and training and know before you go. For the avalanche forecast and other avy-related resources, go to utahavalanchecenter.org.