Friday snow day

TL;DR:

Snow starts tonight and continues through early Saturday morning, with totals around 10". More snow possible next week.

Nowcast:

Mountain temps this morning have returned to relatively more seasonal numbers (between 25 and 35°F) and we're seeing a mix of sun and clouds. Park City and BCC are more on the sunny side of that equation, while LCC seems to be more on the cloudy side:

The view from Snowbird's Hidden Peak, courtesy of Snowbird

For today, expect mountain highs in the low 30s °F, a continued mix of sun and clouds, and increasing winds.

Short-term:

Our next round of snowfall moves in tonight and sticks around for 24-30 hours, granting the Central Wasatch around 10" of snow. Temps will be colder (finishing around ~15°F) with this storm, so expect better snow quality than we've seen recently! Friday should be the best storm skiing day while Saturday should be a first-chair best chair kind of day.

After Saturday morning, we clear out for a bit.

Long-term:

We'll stay dry for a couple of days, then snowfall looks to return to the area; you can see that from the upward trend on the snow ensemble plumes:

Snow ensemble plumes for Alta, courtesy of the U's Department of Atmospheric Sciences

We'll keep an eye on it and see how this develops...

If you will be traveling in the backcountry, make sure you have the proper gear and training and know before you go. For the avalanche forecast and other avy-related resources, go to utahavalanchecenter.org.

Forecaster's Corner bonus feature

As a fun little side note for those of you who read this far, here's a little discussion on forecast uncertainty...

One of the websites I use for forecasting snowfall is the National Weather Service's probabilistic snowfall page, which is exactly what it sounds like: it shows the chance a particular location has of exceeding a certain amount of snowfall as well as predicted snowfall totals based on the high-end, low-end, and expected scenarios. Usually, the low-end, high-end, and expected snowfall totals are in a somewhat close range (within 5-10"), but that was *not* the case this morning. Here are a few of my favorites:

- Snowbird: low-end 3", expected 8", high-end 40"

- Canyons base: low-end 2", expected 4", high-end 16"

- Garden City: low-end <1", expected 1", high-end 10"

- Park City Mountain: low-end 4", expected 7", high-end 24"

- Provo Canyon: low-end <1", expected 3", high-end 46"

From 3" to 46" in Provo Canyon!

I'm 99% sure these numbers are determined by running a large number of computer models, each with slightly different atmospheric conditions, and then forecasting totals from the most likely scenario that all those models are showing. With regard to our situation here, this means that enough computer models forecasted those crazy high totals that the high-end amounts shown here are reasonable. For the record, those high-end totals are unlikely (there is a 90% chance that less snow will fall and only a 10% chance that more snow will fall), but they aren't completely outlandish...

Thanks for reading and have an awesome day :)

Atmospheric river incoming!

TL;DR:

A messy atmospheric river will bring wind, warm temps, and plenty of water to Utah this weekend. More chances for snow in the long-term.

Nowcast:

We're seeing a bit of a temperature inversion this morning with summit and valley temps between 25-30°F and mid-elevation temps closer to 20°F. Also, the sun and clouds are having a spirited spar on who gets to control the sky; here's what that looks like from Brighton: 

Brighton webcam, courtesy of OpenSnow

For today, expect fairly mild mountain temperatures climbing into the low 30s °F as well as increasing clouds and wind ahead of our next round of snow this weekend. Read on for the details on that...

Short-term:

The weather pattern responsible for the snow this weekend is an atmospheric river pulling warm, moist air from the Pacific and blasting it at the West; these storms are often called "warm, windy, and wet" and this one is no different - not necessarily ideal for skiing, but excellent for our somewhat lacking snowpack.

So how much snow/moisture are we looking at? Models are generally showing about 2" of water for the Central Wasatch...

GFS total accumulated precipitation, courtesy of Tropical Tidbits

...which they are translating to a general 10-20" of snow by Sunday evening:

Utah Snow Ensemble plumes for Canyons-Daybreak, courtesy of the U's Department of Atmospheric Sciences

It's worth noting that the only time I see 10,000ft temps even approaching -5°C (~23°F) for the next five days is tomorrow morning, meaning summits will be flirting with freezing temps for most of this storm. As a result, the snow that falls will be dense and some lower-elevation areas will probably see some rain.

Long story short, it's going to be a messy storm, but we need the moisture so we can't complain!

Long-term:

The good news is that it doesn't seem like we'll go totally dry after this weekend; as you may have noticed in the image above, follow-up snow is possible around midweek next week. We'll keep you updated on that - hopefully we can get a good, cold, midweek classic Utah storm to make up for all the ones we've missed this season...

Thanks for reading!

The storm this weekend will ramp up avalanche danger across Utah mountains, so if you will be traveling in the backcountry, make sure you have the proper gear and training and know before you go. For the avalanche forecast and other avy-related resources, visit utahavalanchecenter.org.

Where did the front land?

TL;DR:

Snow showers today thanks to a front; fairly chilly and likely dry until next weekend.

Nowcast:

This weekend's snowfall is being determined by a cold front stalling over Utah; where it parked itself would determine who got the best snowfall. Well, as of 6:30am, the front is stalled here:

Current radar, courtesy of OpenSnow

It's sort of falling apart on radar and the best part of what remains isn't targeting any ski areas, but the front was more robust earlier this morning and delivered some snow; from checking snow stakes and webcams, I'm seeing the following totals as of 6:30am:

- Park City/Deer Valley: 1-2"

- Solitude/Brighton: ~2"

- Snowbird/Alta: 2-3"

- Sundance: 1"

- Snowbasin/PowMow: 0-1"

The front is projected to remain in a similar location for at least a couple more hours, so we could add a couple of inches onto these totals.

Short-term:

High temperatures should start the week in the high 20s °F and gradually warm from there. It'll be a very dry week (again) but read on, because that may change...

Long-term:

Model guidance is suggesting our next storm for next weekend, continuing the trend of Saturday/Sunday snow days. Early indications look promising, though - check out the Utah snow ensemble plumes for Alta:

Utah snow ensemble plumes for Alta, courtesy of the U's Department of Atmospheric Sciences

You can see that towards the end of this period (beginning of February) the lines go up - indicating snowfall - but they also spread out a lot, indicating considerable uncertainty. This isn't surprising of course since we're about a week out - we'll keep an eye on it...

If you'll be traveling in the backcountry, make sure you have the proper training and equipment and know before you go. For the avalanche forecast and other avy-related resources, go to utahavalanchecenter.org.

Cold and mostly dry week ahead

TL;DR:

It's cold in the mountains this morning and it will continue to get colder through tomorrow, after which we will likely moderate a bit. No significant snow is expected until possibly next weekend.

Nowcast:

This morning's weather can best be described in one word: *cold*. Almost every weather station in the Central Wasatch is showing single-digit (°F) temperatures, and combined with the wind, many feel-like temps are subzero. Many locations are also just now seeing their first hints of sun after lingering snow showers and clouds kept it hidden; here's what that looks like up at Solitude:

Solitude base webcam, courtesy of OpenSnow

For today, expect mountain temperatures to remain in the single digits under mostly cloudy skies; a bit of snow is also possible. It's going to be a frigid one, so dress warm!

Short-term:

Temperatures will continue to decrease ahead of a particularly potent shot of cold air tomorrow, which will drop mountain temperatures below 0 °F (with feel-like temps even colder than that); after that, temperatures should moderate a bit and return to their seasonal normals, although some models are hinting at another shot of cold air on Wednesday morning... we'll keep an eye on it.

Otherwise, there won't be too much happening this week - big storms (or, for that matter, much snow at all) are continuing to be elusive for many areas.

Long-term:

Models are hinting at a storm next weekend, but agreement is naturally very poor at the moment so I'm not counting on anything yet... 

If you will be traveling in the backcountry, make sure you have the proper training and equipment and know before you go. For the avalanche forecast and other avy-related resources, visit utahavalanchecenter.org.

Cold snap alert!

 TL;DR:

The next five days feature some light snow and some very cold temperatures. Next week doesn't look very snowy, but it does look even colder...

Nowcast:

We're seeing a temperature inversion this morning with temps in the teens and 20s °F in valley and canyon bottoms and low 30s °F at the summits. It also looks perfectly clear up in the mountains; here's what it looked like up at Brighton just a little bit ago:

Brighton webcam, courtesy of OpenSnow

For today, expect mountain highs in the low 30s °F under clear skies.

Short-term:

Tomorrow evening, we are going to get clipped by a storm sliding through just to the east, meaning we won't get the best moisture or energy, but we won't get nothing either. Models are indicating no more than 3-5" of snow by Sunday morning.

Of note with this storm are the cold temperatures it brings; check out the 700mb (about 10,000') temps on Saturday evening:

European model 700mb Temps, courtesy of Tropical Tidbits

The light purple shading over Northern Utah indicates temps around -18°C, which is just below 0°, and models are showing another even deeper plunge into the deep freeze around MLK Day. Brace yourselves...

Long-term:

Next week isn't looking particularly snowy - just cold, as I mentioned above - so keep doing your snow dances :)

Backcountry comments:

If you will be traveling in the backcountry, make sure you have the proper training and equipment and know before you go. For the avalanche forecast and other avy-related resources, visit utahavalanchecenter.org.